The broad promises made by the Trump 2.0 campaign to the Americans, notably on the fight against inflation, could favor India to the extent that they could lower oil prices and lead to a rapid end to the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, officials said, adding that the new regime could revive tariff negotiations between India and the United States. providing opportunities to further develop trade.

The new US administration is unlikely to ignore current global economic realities and geopolitical dynamics when making major policy decisions vis-à-vis India, and the second administration of Donald Trump (Trump 2.0) is expected to be more engaging and cooperative. » added, requesting anonymity. As the global geopolitical situation has changed dramatically since early 2021, India’s economic strength and global position have only grown, so trade negotiations between the two partners could proceed amicably and in a timely manner. mutual interest, they said.

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One of the people, a senior government official, said the Narendra Modi government had worked closely with all three regimes – the Obama administration, the Trump administration and the Joe Biden-Kamala Harris administration. Each time, economic relations between India and the United States have strengthened. “Both Prime Minister Modi and President Trump are experienced world leaders with a common agenda: a strong, secure and prosperous world,” he said.

Government officials and industry experts said India and the United States are poised to strengthen their strategic relationship as they have a common goal: strengthening democracy, ending illegal immigration, controlling money laundering and crushing terrorism.

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People admitted that Trump’s ‘America First’ agenda will impact India’s trade with the United States, but it will also provide India with an opportunity in terms of rapprochement with friends. The United States will need to import several products in order to protect Americans against rising inflation and for these products, India could be the preferred supplier if the United States reduces Chinese imports by increasing tariffs, he said. -they emphasized. During his campaign, Trump said he would impose tariffs of 10 to 20 percent on all imports and higher tariffs of 60 to 100 percent on Chinese imports. This would make Indian clothing, shoes and toys competitive in the US market.

“India and the United States recently resolved their differences amicably, outside the WTO (World Trade Organization). The two countries are always willing to negotiate all trade issues, including tariff issues, bilaterally for mutual benefits,” a second official said.

Ajay Sahai, director general of the Federation of Indian Export Organizations (FIEO), said India and the United States recognize each other’s strengths. “America could nevertheless negotiate greater market access in areas like agriculture, medical devices and computer equipment. Both partners will negotiate on these issues while keeping in mind each other’s sensitivities,” he said.

Some experts said Trump’s election could increase uncertainty on several trade issues, but believe the end result will still be beneficial from a broader perspective between India and the United States. “This will strengthen the overall strategic partnership, especially in the area of ​​space defense,” said Nilaya Varma, CEO and founder of consultancy Primus Partners, adding that the Trump administration could work with India to “counterbalance the ‘Chinese influence’ by strengthening partnerships and strategic investments.

But some also believe that the United States could adopt a protectionist stance, which would impact India.

Agneshwar Sen, tax and economic policy partner (international trade) at EY India, said the US would use high tariffs “strategically to offshore manufacturing and change current supply chains”, which could see India face higher tariffs on exports of textiles, chemicals and pharmaceuticals. and automotive/engineering products. “India should either look for alternative markets (which will be difficult) or retaliate with its own tariffs on US exports.”

The solution, Sen added, could be a “trade deal that is attractive to the United States” and that also protects India’s interests.

If trade policy measures, such as the widespread increase in tariffs, discussed during the election campaign, are implemented, “we could well return to the pre-WTO era of the ‘bowl of spaghetti’ » of free trade agreements. India would do well to be fully prepared and negotiate an FTA with the United States. We will have to be prepared to discuss a wide range of issues that will be put on the table,” he said.

The United States is one of India’s largest trading partners. It exported goods worth $77.52 billion to India in 2023-24 and imported goods worth $42.2 billion. India exports medicines and pharmaceuticals, telecommunication instruments, pearls, precious and semi-precious stones, textiles and marine products. It imports crude oil, petroleum products, coal, computer equipment, ships, boats, electrical equipment and other products from America.