It was a viral tweet from five years ago that asked the question. A video clip showed Rochdale, then in League One, scoring a magnificent team goal made up of 16 passes which started with the team playing calmly in defence.

“Right, so fucking ROCHDALE scored that goal and you’re telling me Pep Guardiola has no influence on English football?” read the accompanying caption.

The post quickly became an internet meme because, as it became increasingly clear, yes, that was obviously the case. This has never been clearer than in the Premier League this season.

In 2015-16, the season before Guardiola took charge at the Etihad, the percentage of Premier League goal kicks that ended in the defensive third of the pitch was 17%. A little less than one in six. The rest ? Hoof, you go out into the field.

This season, nine seasons after Guardiola’s arrival, that figure stands at 61 percent. Almost two out of three. More than half don’t even leave the penalty area.

In the season before Guardiola arrived, goalkeepers completed 51% of their passes. Today, they achieve 71 percent.

Pep Guardiola’s influence has never been more evident than in the Premier League this season.

The percentage of Premier League goal kicks that have ended in the defensive third of the pitch since 2015-16 has increased

These numbers are increasing season after season as more clubs turn to a style of play that builds from the back – and not always, as we will discover, to their advantage.

So yes, Guardiola and his ball philosophy have influenced English football over the last decade more than anyone.

Just look at two of the new Premier League managers this season, Russell Martin at Southampton and Enzo Maresca at Chelsea. Eighty percent of All Saints and Chelsea’s shots on goal do not come from outside their own area. Only Ange Postecoglou’s Tottenham average a shorter distance.

Both are disciples of Guardiola. Both find that their principles reap different rewards.

Maresca worked with Guardiola at City. At Leicester, Mads Hermansen played more passes than any goalkeeper in the history of the championship. Foxes fans have often found the football boring, but he took them back to the Premier League the first time around and is now flying with Chelsea.

Yet grumbling remains. Fans of English clubs are struggling to embrace the Tippy Tappy despite being raised on a diet of blood and thunder. During the first half of their draws against Arsenal, loud groans greeted a misplaced pass from goalkeeper Robert Sanchez.

“It’s me who asked Robert to do this,” Maresca said in defense of his goalkeeper. “The moment he stops to do that, he won’t play anymore. Sometimes you make mistakes but that won’t change the way we’re going to play.

Martin has a quote from Guardiola after his 2011 Champions League victory framed on his office wall. “When we win, the game model looks good and is not questioned,” it reads.

Eighty percent of all Chelsea shots on goal do not come from outside their own area

“But keep in mind that we will not always win. Then the doubts will come. This is the moment when we will have to trust the model more than ever because the temptation to move away from it will be very strong.

And, boy, do the doubts come. Only City have played more passes than the Saints this season, but no team has lost possession in their own third more often than Martin’s men (75) and none have made more errors which led to both in shots on goal (15) and goals conceded (6).

Southampton are bottom of the Premier League but Martin refuses to give in. The question for him, as for all developmental teams that play this way, is whether it’s faith or folly. According to data giant Opta, only five shots have been taken this season within 30 seconds of a team’s short goal kick. However, around twenty shots were taken in this way.

This shows that playing from the back carries a risk. If you mess up, in a division where teams are now so good at pressuring, you get punished. There are twice as many goals from high turnovers, when a team loses the ball within 40 yards of its own goal, per game this season than there were 10 seasons ago.

Brentford have conceded six goals in such situations. Saints, four. Three each for Brighton, Ipswich and Wolves.

Burnley tried to stick to their weapons of possession last season and were relegated. Brighton are doing it now, and doing it well, but they had to be a bit practical under Chris Hughton on their first run up. It was part of a process.

And while these developing clubs led by exciting young managers have caught up on possession, other big teams are moving away from it or are more willing to play differently when necessary – even Guardiola.

Southampton are bottom of the Premier League but Russell Martin refuses to give in

Arsenal, with a manager in Mikel Arteta who learned his trade under Guardiola at City, are long with more than two thirds of their shots on goal.

A quarter of City’s shots on goal also go long. That was more than a third in the previous two seasons. In their decider against Arsenal in 2023, Guardiola knew he had to beat Arteta’s high press, so he played a 4-4-2 and went long to the big man up front.

You see, Pep knows that sometimes even the most idealistic managers have to trade principles for points.