As Election The day is approaching, tens of millions of voters have already cast their ballots across the country.

Whether through mail-in ballots or at in-person early voting locations, more than 68 million Americans, or about 43% of 2020 turnout, had voted against waiting in line on Election Day Friday afternoon, according to data from the University of Florida Elections Laboratory.

Academic experts, journalists and pundits have pored over basic and limited data gleaned from early voting numbers, trying to get clues about next week’s results.

However, that picture isn’t exactly black and white, according to Charles Stewart, director of the Election Data Science Lab at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

“It’s like talking about the weather,” he says. “The candidates, the press, etc. are really trying to draw conclusions just on the face value of the data, but there really isn’t much to say who wins.”

That said, Stewart said early voting data provides information on this year’s voting trends and overall turnout — indicators that could help explain how the election played out.

A change in the way people vote early

Voting trends have shown that more people are choosing to vote before Election Day, and that number has increased over the past 30 years, but 2020 proved to be a major exception, according to Stewart.

In the last presidential election, 69% of the 158 million votes were cast before Election Day, either by mail, including ballots cast in person, or at early voting locations, according to MIT data .

Some 43% of 2020 early votes came from mail-in ballots, according to the data.
Stewart said the COVID-19 pandemic forced many voters, who were already highly engaged and wanted to be safe, to choose to use mail-in ballots or smaller voting lines if available.

“There has been speculation about what would happen with this change once the pandemic ends,” he said.

However, in this year’s early voting, there was a drop in the number of voters choosing mail-in voting, Stewart said.

“The biggest trend I’m seeing is that interest has shifted from mail-in voting to in-person voting,” Stewart said.

He noted that this shift was apparent in Georgia, which saw a record number of early votes, with more than 3.8 million ballots cast Friday. About 92% of them were cast at polling places in person and the rest by mail, according to the Georgia Secretary of State’s Office.

Stewart said some states, including key swing states Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Arizona, only offer early voting through in-person absentee options. Under this option, a voter must request an absentee ballot, fill it out, then place it in a ballot box or designated location, and they are counted as an absentee voter.

Some voters may not have the time or energy to take those extra steps to vote early and will likely vote in person, Stewart said.

“If you have to vote early in person, you have to figure out where that precinct is, but you have to know which one is closest to your house or shopping. With mail-in voting, you have to make the effort to apply, to fill it out and return it and hope the mail will be delivered on time,” he said. “With Election Day voting, you will likely have a polling place much closer to home.”

According to Stewart, early voting method preference isn’t the only thing that has seen a change.

Partisan numbers give no indication of the outcome

Stewart said historical trends show the majority of early voters made their decisions a long time ago and are likely politically active.

Data from this year shows that to be the case, he said, and noted a major shift in partisan turnout in several battleground states, according to the University of Florida Election Lab.

Registered Republicans saw higher early voting turnout in the battlegrounds of Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina on Friday compared to 2024, the data showed.

Generally, Democrats have had an advantage in early voting. However, Trump pushed his supporters to vote early and that appears to be having an impact, Stewart said.

While Republican officials present these higher numbers as a sign of growing support, Stewart cautioned that the data is more nuanced.

He noted that this shows, so far, that a large number of registered Republicans who voted early came from people who voted on Election Day in 2020 and were not new voters.

Stewart said that would mean there would be fewer Republican voters casting ballots on Election Day and therefore their votes might not be reported until much later on Election Night, or even several days afterward.

In 2020, many swing states saw their Democratic scores increase throughout election night and throughout the week, creating a “red mirage” effect on the outcome.

That mirage and “blue wave” might be lessened this time around, Stewart said.

“Whatever the blue shift is, there will probably be a less steep slope,” he said.

What gender and race say about early voting

Democrats have touted the gender gap as a factor in their favor in early voting numbers, as more than 54% of women voted Friday, according to University of Florida data.

Stewart said this hypothesis was not worthy of mention.

Women have always made up the majority of the electorate in presidential elections since 1980, according to tthe Center for Women and Politics at Rutgers University.

Stewart said that was also true for early voters.

“It’s not always obvious to the public that there has always been a gender gap,” he said.

When it comes to race, white voters are more likely to vote by mail than black voters, according to MIT data.

Stewart said it stems from traditions dating back to the civil rights movement.

“African Americans fought and sometimes died to get into the voting booth. That was instilled in the community,” he said.

The practice is one of the factors driving large numbers of Black voters to in-person early voting sites in states like Georgia and South Carolina, where that option is available.

Churches, civil rights groups and other organizations linked to the black community have pushed voters to go to the polls early, using campaigns such as “Souls to the Polls” to avoid complications on election day.

Groups in Georgia in particular have insisted on voting early to get around some of the restrictive voting laws which have been put in place since the 2020 elections.

As of Friday evening, more than 1 million black voters had cast ballots, according to the Georgia secretary of state’s office.

“The mobilization efforts have clearly proven to be effective,” Stewart said.

Signs point to high participation

Stewart said the only definitive conclusion that can be drawn from the early voting data is that this year’s overall turnout will be “comparable” to 2020, which was the highest percentage voter turnout in over 100 years old.

“It could reach 160 (million),” he estimated.

Stewart said early voting trends have shown that voters under 25 have not yet cast their ballots and will typically be waiting in line on Election Day.

“Those populations are really strongly represented on Election Day,” he said.

Stewart reiterated that with the pandemic over, many early 2020 voters will likely return to voting on Election Day, especially if it presents itself as the easiest option for their location and job. time.

As for the future, Steward predicted that the increase in Republican voters voting early will continue in future cycles, along with the general trend of the electorate opting for early voting.

“The data shows this organic increase in early voting, even after the pandemic,” he said. “Voters want more options, and they will seriously consider voting if they have more choices.”