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The Republicans are just a few places to take control of the United States House of Representatives. Here in Southern California there are a lot of our swing seats are not yet resolved – and they could help tip the scales.

Eight federal and state races In California, there is less than a 2% difference between first and second place and between “yes” and “no” votes on ballot measures so far.

Here’s a look at what’s driving our tightest House races.

A two-county race could turn blue

In District 45, a key swing seat, Republican Rep. Michelle Steel’s lead narrowed Monday night to 50.7 percent, compared to Democrat Derek Tran’s 49.3 percent. Steel’s victory looked solid in early tallies after Election Day, but Tran made steady progress as votes dwindled.

This district straddles parts of southeast LA County and northern OC, with voters are divided 37.07% Democrats and 33.05% Republicans. Unsurprisingly, LA’s votes have so far favored Tran, while a majority of OC’s votes have gone to Steel.

If the trajectory of votes over time continues on its current trajectory, the district could turn blue. That would be a blow to House Republicans, who have largely viewed it as a safe seat since it was created by redistricting after the 1980 census. (The only exception was Rep. Katie Porter’s 2019 term and 2023.)

This could also lead to political problems for Steel, as state senators criticized her recently, after a LAist survey discovered she awarded a pandemic meal contract to her campaign mail vendor while she was an OC supervisor.

The Orange County seat is still too close to call

It’s a similar story further south.

In OC’s District 47, Democrat Dave Min (50.52%) has maintained a slight advantage over Republican Scott Baugh (49.48%) since taking the lead Friday. The gap widened slightly Monday evening to 3,214 votes.

This is the seat Porter chose not to run for reelection for, instead trying to win as a U.S. senator. A close race is the unmistakable mark of a Really purple district – which includes Irvine, from the left (the largest city in the district), and Huntington Beach, from the right.

Voter registration is almost split in half: 38.83% of registered voters are Democrats and 34.87% are Republicans.

The division has remained fairly stagnant, but it’s unclear where the votes will ultimately split.

A House seat flips

One of our most watched races finished Monday evening.

In District 27, Republican Rep. Mike Garcia concededsaying he will ensure a smooth handover to Democratic challenger George Whitesides, former CEO of Virgin Galactic. Garcia thanked his constituents for allowing him to represent them during what he called a “tumultuous” and “critical” time.

White sides credited voters for fueling the success of his campaign. His victory gives Democrats a much-needed boost in their efforts in the House. It was a Democratic stronghold for more than 20 years before Garcia took office.

Garcia won the district in a special election in 2020, then won a full term with just 333 votes in a stunning conclusion the same year. The district primarily covers the rural Antelope Valley and parts of the San Fernando Valley, with 30.23% of voters registered as Republicans and 40.41% Democratic.

The exit came after Whitesides took the lead on Saturday with a lead that grew to 6,983 votes as of Monday evening.

According to the latest vote count, Garcia has 48.79% of the vote and Whitesides has 51.21%.

These close races are not our first rodeo

We have been faced with some not-so-supernatural situations at the local and state levels. Margins can even be as small as a single digit Or double-digit difference.

While OC Supervisor-elect Janet Nguyen won his race for District 1 a few days ago, she had a very a failure in one of his previous campaigns for the seat. She became supervisor in 2007 after a recount confirmed a margin of just three votes.

Long Beach voters got a recount of Measure A in 2020, which passed only 16 votes. Then, of course, there was Garcia’s victory with 333 votes.

Close races can also occur during the primary. This year, a congressional race in Silicon Valley faces a tie for the second and a recountwhich resulted in only one candidate in second place for the general election.

Could recounts take place?

Recounts are still possible in theory.

Keep in mind that a difference of a few thousand votes may seem small, but it is typical in some city elections. This type of margin can be much tighter for elections in federal ridings with hundreds of thousands of voters.

Overall, it’s pretty rare for a recount to make a dramatic difference, but that doesn’t stop candidates or voters from registering.

There’s no hard and fast rule as to when, but a few close races could fall into usual recount territory if things are very close.

Unlike other statesCalifornia does not have an automatic recount threshold.

State election law allows any voter to ask a recount for any contest provided they pay for it (which can range from around $10,000 to over $100,000). For most races, this must be done within five days of official certification of the election (i.e. by December 5). For statewide or cross-county electionsthis request can only be made within five days of December 6.

California law also authorizes the governor to order a state-funded recount for any statewide office or ballot measure if the difference is less than 1,000 votes.