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    • Can Hamas maintain its hold on post-war Gaza?
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    Can Hamas maintain its hold on post-war Gaza?

    Umito Posted on

    Numerous historical examples demonstrate that terrorist groups with specific ideological foundations go through life cycles, often marked by critical turning points or crises. Examples include the disintegration of Al-Qaeda and ISIS, which split into decentralized networks in multiple regions without unified command structures, although they retain their original names for various purposes.

    A common factor in the fragmentation of these groups is exposure to serious military setbacks or the loss of key leaders. This raises questions about the potential disintegration of Hamas terrorist group following the ongoing war in Gaza.

    Speculation about the collapse of Hamas has intensified with the lack of a unified leadership following the death of Yahya Sinwar and the movement’s use of a joint leadership council.

    The end of the war is likely to trigger a thorough reassessment, as it could be difficult for Hamas to continue to persist, either due to the destruction of its military and organizational infrastructure or due to regional and international plans to exclude it from government altogether from Gaza.

    Although some reports suggest that Hamas has resumed its activities in northern Gaza with local support, this does not guarantee the movement’s sustainability. The current situation is evolving and complex. In the absence of a viable governance alternative, Hamas’ presence could serve as a refuge for residents – driven by fear or the inability to resist.

    The house where Sinwar was killed in southern Gaza, with Israeli, Kfir and Parachute Brigade flags planted on it, October 20, 2024. (credit: Chen Shimmel)

    Hamas needs an alternative to stay in power

    The absence of a unified post-war governance framework could facilitate the gradual re-emergence of Hamas. Ultimately, the survival of the movement depends on the availability of an institutional alternative to manage Gaza, particularly to guarantee public order in a context of total disorder.

    The cohesion or collapse of Hamas will depend on how the current conflict with Israel ends. If Israel does not achieve a decisive defeat, Hamas may remain consistent, interpreting its survival as a symbolic victory, even from a propaganda perspective.

    Another important factor will be the position of other Palestinian factions, particularly pressure on the Palestinian Authority to adopt reforms and anti-corruption measures. The persistence of the Palestinian Authority in its current state encourages the formation of parallel power structures or the emergence of new extremist movements under different names.

    Furthermore, local perspectives on recent events may not favor Hamas, given the widespread destruction across Gaza, to which the movement cannot adequately respond. Regional or international bodies are unlikely to engage in reconstruction efforts as long as Hamas holds power, either as the main leader or as a partner in governance.

    Internal pressures could push for fragmentation of the movement or an attempt to avoid accountability, potentially giving rise to splinter groups with similar ideologies.

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    The situation could reflect the resilience of the Afghan Taliban in the face of US forces, where the Taliban maintained their cohesion due to the inability of the US military to achieve a decisive defeat.

    This contrasts with Daesh and al-Qaeda who, after clear military defeats, dispersed in various regions. Unlike the death of Osama bin Laden, which had a profound impact on al-Qaeda, the loss of Sinwar – one in a chain of leaders targeted by Israel – did not lead to the collapse of Hamas.

    The future of Hamas appears linked to two critical factors: first, the results of military operations and the movement’s human and material losses; and second, the nature of post-war governance and the existence of a competent alternative.

    This replacement must manage security, discipline and daily life in Gaza more effectively than Hamas, which could force the group into retreat and possibly expose internal conflicts previously overshadowed by the current military crisis.

    The writer is a UAE political analyst and former candidate for the Federal National Council.



    Umito
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