New federal immigration restrictions are expected to curb Winnipeg’s population growth, according to the Conference Board of Canada’s new economic outlook.

The non-profit economic think tank projects that the population of Manitoba’s capital will increase by just 1 per cent in 2025. That would follow robust growth of 2.5 per cent in 2023 and expected growth at a similar pace this year.

One major factor is the federal government’s decision to reduce immigration targets, a policy shift aimed at reducing pressure on housing in more populous cities, such as Toronto and Vancouver.

The government announced last month that it would reduce the planned number of new permanent residents from 485,000 this year to 395,000 in 2025, with further reductions to 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027. According to the previous plan published in last November, Canada was expected to admit around 500,000 in 2025 and 2026.

“New federal government restrictions will result in lower levels of net international migration,” the Conference Board says in its outlook for Winnipeg, released Thursday.

That, plus Manitoba’s chronic tendency to lose people to other provinces, will mark the end of several years of robust population growth in Winnipeg, according to the Conference Board.

“Retention of newcomers has been a persistent challenge for Winnipeg over the past several decades. This trend is unlikely to change in the coming years as many immigrants choose to move to cities with larger job markets and more attractions,” the council states in its economic prospects.

In its annual publication of population estimatesreleased in August, Winnipeg’s Office of Economic Development and Policy estimated that the city’s population was approximately 836,250 as of July 1.

That same report projects slower growth in 2025. Tyler Kroeker, the city’s economic analyst, said in a statement that the Conference Board’s projection is consistent with what the city expected, mainly because it is expected the arrival of fewer non-permanent residents.

Kroeker said 1% growth remains significant, as it would lead to an annual population increase of around 9,000 people in 2025.

That, he said, is much higher than the growth Winnipeg saw in the decade before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Kroeker said slower population growth would not affect the city’s revenue projections.

But Walter Bolduc, an economist with the Conference Board, said it could further hurt the city’s economy by reducing the available labor pool.

He also said it could result in a reduction in tax revenue for the province. Manitoba relies more than the city on revenue from growth, including provincial sales tax.

CBC News requested comment from the province, but did not receive a response addressing the effect of reduced population growth on sales tax revenue.