Currently, Harris is about 67M (NY Times data), but about 45% of California’s votes are not yet included in this count, plus 30% of Oregon’s votes, 35% of Washington’s votes, 35% of Arizona’s votes and a little more in other states. Given that so far the 54% of California votes that have been counted are split between 5.6 million for Harris and 3.9 million for Trump, that suggests the remaining 46% will add about 4.8 million to the tally of Harris and about 3.3 million to that of Trump.

I looked through the New York Times map and entered the data for states that weren’t listed as reporting >95%, and projecting from current totals it looks like Harris is likely to get around 9 million more, for a total of approximately 76 million. . Trump’s popular vote will also increase significantly beyond its current 72 million, to around 79 million. This expected split (76 million to 79 million) could be compared to the final 2020 results, which favored Biden by 81 million to 74 million; so it looks like we’ll ultimately see a likely swing of about 5 million votes, give or take a million, I’d guess.

I mention this because I saw people suggesting that the drop from Biden’s 81 million to Harris’ 67 million is very suspicious. But, again, that doesn’t make much sense, because it’s comparing the final 2020 totals to the far-from-final 2024 totals.

Of course, I would like to see more reliable estimates than my rather rough calculations. UPDATE: The University of Florida Elections Laboratory estimates 158.5 million ballots have been counted, suggesting 19.5 million ballots remain to be counted; that’s higher than my estimate of 16 million remaining, but it’s still consistent with the general idea that current totals are far from definitive.