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The Mets’ top 5 questions this offseason include: Can they woo Juan Soto and how much will they spend overall? (Video)
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The Mets’ top 5 questions this offseason include: Can they woo Juan Soto and how much will they spend overall? (Video)

THE The 2024 New York Mets have been a whirlwind, a grueling and exhilarating adventure of improbability. They were a ragtag group of well-paid misfits, with the magic of an anthropomorphic purple blob and a Latin pop earworm. The Mets rode the good vibes all the way to the NLCS. An MVP runner-up campaign from shortstop Francisco Lindor also helped.

Here are the top five questions that will shape what is sure to be a fascinating and active winter in Queens.

Mets owner Steve Cohen is, according to Forbesthe 39th richest person in America. Since purchasing the Mets in 2020 for $2.4 billion, Cohen has invested a fortune in his new toy. Once a circus of frugality, the Mets organization has burnished its reputation and is now firmly considered one of the financial giants of the sport.

NEW YORK, NY - JUNE 26: New York Mets owner Steven A Cohen looks on during the national anthem before the game between the New York Yankees and the New York Mets at Citi Field on Wednesday, June 26, 2024 in New York , New York. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images)NEW YORK, NY - JUNE 26: New York Mets owner Steven A Cohen looks on during the national anthem before the game between the New York Yankees and the New York Mets at Citi Field on Wednesday, June 26, 2024 in New York , New York. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

The Mets and team owner Steven Cohen could be aggressive in this free agent market after entering the NLCS last season. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images) (Daniel Shirey via Getty Images)

Last offseason, the club’s first under new president of baseball operations David Stearns, the Mets focused on depth by signing a group of players to one-year deals. These shrewd acquisitions helped propel the 2024 OMG Mets into the annals of New York sports history and put the Mets back on the path to victory. But with so many key contributors reaching free agencythe Mets could look drastically different next season.

And different could mean better given that the Mets have the financial flexibility to be extremely active. The current projected payroll is about $170 million lower than the $336 million at year-end 2024. But how high will it go? Stearns, who cut his teeth leading the thrifty Milwaukee Brewers, is used to operating conservatively. Cohen, on the other hand, is the anti-Scrooge. Given how big the payroll was previously, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Mets spend a lot of money on free agents this winter.

We know Juan Soto is going to land a contract worth at least $550 million, a figure Cohen and Co. can certainly afford. Whatever the Yankees offer, Cohen could theoretically tap into his endless hedge fund riches and outbid his crosstown rivals. Soto’s agent, Scott Boras, will count on this precise dynamic to drive up the price.

So the Mets’ run in Soto will come down to three dynamics:

  • Did Soto’s year in the Bronx do enough to convince him to take less money (but still a lot of money) to become a Yankee?

  • How far are the Yankees willing to go?

  • Can the Mets convince Soto that Queens is a better fit for him?

How the Soto sweepstakes plays out will dictate the rest of the Mets’ offseason. If they bring in the big fish, they’ll act a little more judiciously to complete the roster. If the Mets miss out on Soto, their center could be a boon to other highly touted free agents.

No one has hit more home runs at Citi Field than Alonso, who had a disappointing season in his final year under contract. Yet the happy basher still clubbed 34 long balls in 2024, while finishing the year with a batting line 23% above the league average. It’s also important to consider what he means to the franchise; Alonso has started 86% of the team’s games at first base since his 2019 debut and is currently just 32 homers behind the Mets’ all-time record of 252 held by Darryl Strawberry. By (1) staying in Queens and (2) having a few more productive seasons, Alonso would be a franchise icon.

Still, there are plenty of reasons to be wary of Alonso’s profile. He’s a relatively unathletic right-hander, a first baseman on the wrong side of 30, who isn’t a great defender. Sluggers like this don’t often age well. The “smart” move would be to let Alonso walk, move Mark Vientos from third (where he’s a mediocre glove) to first (where he would fit well), and find a new third baseman. This tact is far from a given and there aren’t many other players available who can provide such profitable home run power.

The Mets can sign Soto and Alonso, but will they want to? Both players, as they get older, would need to bat at DH. Having two one-dimensional hitters on the same roster could create a logjam. On the other hand, the two would form a formidable right-left combo for a long time in the middle of the alignment.

Will the Mets’ offer end up being Alonso’s highest offer? Probably not. His free agency could come down to (1) the gap between the Mets and the next best offer and (2) whether Alonso would choose continuity over money.

Rotation has been key to New York’s surprise season, but three-fifths of that group — Sean Manaea, Luis Severino and José Quintana — are on the open market this winter. That leaves behind Japanese Kodai Senga, injured for most of 2024, and left-hander David Peterson. These two, if healthy, have locked starting spots. Tylor Megill and Paul Blackburn could be in the mix, but it’s best to deploy both as depth options. That means the Mets need to add at least two starters, but probably three.

Stearns was surprisingly open about this dynamic, telling reporters at his year-end press conference: “We’re going to have to add some starting pitchers. We will need to add several entries. We understand that. We entered last offseason with the same need and I think we will be able to do it.

There’s no doubt that the Mets could definitely use an ace at the top of their rotation. Only three or four free agent pitchers fit this draft: Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Max Fried and Roki Sasaki, with Burnes being the most reliable option. Snell has two Cy Youngs under his belt, but durability issues. Fried has a great track record of preventing runs, but pairs best with a strong interior defense. Sasaki might have a higher ceiling than anyone on Earthbut he cannot be counted on to lead a team coming straight from Japan. Expect the Mets, with or without Soto, to go heavy on this quartet. Beyond that, a Severino return seems most likely, as sources tell Yahoo Sports that the pitcher is extremely interested in a reunion.

As Stearns mentioned, the Mets put together a pretty impressive rotation via free agency last year and they can be counted on to do so again.

In the team’s four NLCS losses, the Mets gave up nine, eight, 10 and 10 runs to the eventual World Series champions. The bullpen, in particular, was put to the test throughout the month of October. Skipper Carlos Mendoza leaned heavily on the two or three arms he trusted — Edwin Díaz, Ryne Stanek, Reed Garrett — because he didn’t have much else. This wasn’t a problem in the shorter series during the wild-card round and the NLDS, but in a seven-game set against the Dodgers, the Mets were exposed.

The Mets need more and better relievers, pitchers they can trust into huge playoff spots. They’re unlikely to buy into the high end of the bullpen market, considering they already have a very rich guy there in Díaz. But expect Stearns to add a handful of relievers on short-term deals, especially those with big-game experience. Kirby Yates, Blake Treinen, and Jeff Hoffman all fit the bill.