Donald Trump supporters wait outside Madison Square Garden where former US president and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is holding a campaign rally in New York on October 27.
Photo: LEONARDO MUNOZ / AFP

Notice – In 1992, James Carville, Bill Clinton’s chief strategist, hung a sign on the wall of the Democratic candidate’s campaign office in Little Rock, Arkansas. There were three lines to focus the team on the key issues that swing votes and one of these lines would become so famous that it became a political cliché.

The line said: “It’s the economy, stupid.” »

It stuck for good reason. Elections are almost always about the economy. He tops most polls asking voters their top issue for the 2024 US presidential election. Maybe not in the way you think.

We will return to this shortly because that is the purpose of this column. But first, let’s be clear about why economics is so important. Take a look at this chart recently released by Gallup.

The Gallup Economic Confidence Index.
Photo: Gallup

As you can see, if people lack confidence in the economy, incumbents are punished. Every politician knows that economic confidence and electoral victories go hand in hand, and if Kamala Harris loses, one of the main reasons will be her inability to sell a clear economic recovery plan and the image many voters have of Trump as a as a leading politician. returned home because of his renowned real estate business and as he got off that helicopter and fired people week after week on his top rated reality show, The Apprentice.

But what is the real state of the American economy and why do so many Americans lack confidence in it? Well, the aftermath of the Covid pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the slowdown of the Chinese economy (among other things) have led to high prices around the world in recent years, including in America. Inflation peaked at 9.1% in 2022, its highest level in 40 years, although it fell to 2.4% and annual growth returned to 2.8%. Gasoline prices are retreating from highs of $5, but holding stubbornly above $3 per gallon, contrary to forecasts. Unemployment is 4.1 percent.

These statistics might win in most election years, but Americans are coming off a few extreme years. This 9% inflation means that prices overall have increased by almost 20% since Joe Biden became president. Unemployment had exceeded 14 percent in 2022.

All this insecurity is still just a new memory and incomes have not caught up with the rise in inflation. And most Americans have no idea of ​​the global situation in which they find themselves caught; they expect the president to have protected them better.

But that’s just a superficial economic debate, and it obscures what many people are really saying when they tell pollsters that the economy and the cost of living are their top issues this election. Because here’s the thing: I think when a lot of people worry about the economy, they take a longer-term view.

This mirrors one of the other pieces of advice Carville hung on that Little Rock wall in 1992. One that is generally forgotten but worth remembering just as much as “It’s the economy, stupid.” This other line? “Change for more of the same.” »

Oh yes, change. It’s a complex question, but I think the political issues are quite clear. Many people have lost confidence in their public institutions and are demanding change. In fact, they have been since the turn of the century. They are fed up with no one doing anything and this inflation is really just the latest in a long series of economic disappointments.

Last May, The New York Times and Siena interviewed the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Overall, 40 percent of respondents said they would prefer a president who “promises to fundamentally change America.” When asked if they thought the U.S. political and economic system needed to change, 55 percent said “the system needs major changes,” nearly double the 27 percent who supported “changes.” minors. But guess what? 14 percent said “the system needs to be completely demolished.” Few want the status quo.

Donald Trump.
Photo: AFP / Jim Watson

At this point, it was a Biden versus Trump race and 13 percent said Biden would make “major changes,” while 45 percent thought Trump would. For many, the nature of the changes is almost irrelevant. They just want something different. Anything but “more of the same.”

Many people, especially middle-aged and older middle- and working-class people who have seen their lifestyles and financial options deteriorate over a generation or two, feel less wealthy, more alienated and more despised. Which is bad news for any job holder.

And this confirms another piece of data I saw at a talk this week by Chris Carman, professor of politics at the University of Glasgow. He pointed to research showing that in 1980, white men without a college degree earned about 10 percent more than the average full-time income.

But as Asians, women, blacks and Hispanics have all seen their incomes move closer to, or even exceed, the average, white men without a college education now earn about 10 percent less than the average income.

Their role as breadwinner, their status and pride, their ability to own a home, provide for their family and hold their heads high have been eroded. And Democrats seem to have lost their ability to engage with them and their working/middle-income families.

Is it any wonder then that they react to a politician like Trump, who looks like them, reflects their frustration, and wants to return to the time when their America was great? Is it any wonder they are so angry about immigration and trade deals? Because, while it’s not as simple as Trump makes it seem, it’s fairly orthodox in economics to say that high levels of immigration lower wages, especially in lower-paying jobs.

Is it any wonder that they attack “change” in all its forms when they are on the losing side, while wanting more change so they can get back on their feet? In my opinion, the culture wars and the economic wars are deeply linked.

Make no mistake, there is deep prejudice in parts of the United States, a conservative form of Christianity that demands disproportionate attention to abortion and sexuality, and a level of misinformation and disinformation that is mind-bogglingly deep . .

But at the heart of elections and polls that show the economy is by far the most important issue are generations of social and economic changes that have left too many people behind. There is a loss of faith in public institutions and a sense of hopelessness that means too many people are convinced that democracy is on the ballot in these elections; because they feel so betrayed, they want to burn everything.

If Trump wins, the disillusioned and bitter could win their case. If Harris wins, she will have the major challenge of keeping her promise to be everyone’s president. To do something to address the causes of polarization in your country rather than its symptoms.

Because you’d have to be really stupid not to see that we’re running out of time to save the idea of ​​America and the strong, hopeful middle class that supports it.

* This article was originally published on Expert.

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