Donald Trump, Kamala Harris

A tie in the US presidential election, with neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump reaching the 270 electoral votes needed to win, remains improbable, but possible. If such a situation arises, which is unlikely, here is how to proceed. Electoral College deadlock would take place and what it would mean for the outcome of the election.

Understanding the Electoral College

In U.S. presidential elections, the president is chosen not by the national popular vote, but by a 538-member electoral college. Each state’s electoral votes reflect its representation in Congress: two senators plus a number of representatives in the House based on population. Thus, each state holds a different number of electoral votes.
Most states, except Maine and Nebraska, use a “winner-takes-all” approach, awarding all electoral votes to the candidate who wins the state’s popular vote.

Example: How Florida’s electoral votes are distributed

To illustrate, let’s look at Florida, a state with 29 electoral votes.

So Florida’s 29 electoral votes contribute significantly to a candidate’s path to 270, especially in a close race.

What if neither candidate reaches 270 electoral votes?

In the unlikely event that both candidates receive 269 electoral votes, the electoral decision would go to Congress, as dictated by the U.S. Constitution. Specifically, the newly elected House of Representatives would choose the president and the Senate would choose the vice president.

How a tie between 269 and 269 electoral colleges could happen

A 269-269 tie in the Electoral College, while unlikely, could occur in specific scenarios. For example, if Kamala Harris wins key states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, while Donald Trump gets Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and a single congressional district in Nebraska, each candidate would obtain exactly 269 electoral votes. This impasse would trigger a conditional election because no candidate received the required 270 votes out of 538 in the Electoral College.

Contingent election: how the House chooses the president

In this case, a “conditional election” would take place in Congress on January 6, 2025.

The last contingent election occurred in 1800, when a tie between Thomas Jefferson and John Adams led to the House deciding the presidency after 36 rounds of voting. This contentious process ultimately led to the 12th Amendment, which refined the rules but left open the possibility of a tied election.

Implications of a Tied Election

If a tie were to occur today, a contingent election would introduce intense uncertainty. The House would have to establish rules for the process, which would likely spark partisan disagreements. Combined with an already contentious campaign, this could heighten political tensions among American voters, many of whom may already be skeptical about the integrity of the election.
In short, a tie in the U.S. presidential election would shift the decision to Congress. Each state delegation in the House would vote for president only once, while the Senate would choose the vice president. This rare scenario would usher in a period of political tension and uncertainty increasing the complexity of the U.S. Electoral College system.