However, Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) chief Thirumavalavan, an ally of Vijay’s chosen rival Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), gave unsolicited advice to Vijay in one of the first reactions to the demands and offers. “An offer should be the final straw on the political scene. It should also be an indirect program as much as possible. But the demands may be obvious from the beginning,” said the VCK leader and MP from Chidambaram constituency said recently.

Vijay wants to break existing coalitions

The electorate of Tamil Nadu can be divided into two broad groups. Those who are long-time loyalists to the DMK and those who oppose it. This is how the All India Anna Dravida Kazhagam (AIADMK) was born. Vijay is clearly targeting the latter, making him a natural ally for the former chief minister Edappadi Palanisamy. Let’s put this thought aside for a moment.

What Thirumavalavan, often hailed as the greatest Dalit leader in contemporary Tamil Nadu politics, might imply is that Vijay might be putting the cat among the pigeons a little too early, with about two years to go before the elections.

When Vijay made it clear that he was recruiting coalition partners, the leaders of smaller parties might be forced to show loyalty to their major partners, as Thirumavalavan did, before they could negotiate with Vijay. However, there is still enough time to reshuffle existing alliances.

Vijay’s likely partners and their challenges

Joseph Vijay Chandrasekhar is just starting out as a politician, but his Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) has already shown its potential to constitute a third axis. For decades, Tamil Nadu has been accustomed to a bipolar competition between the DMK, in power since 2021, and the AIADMK.

Even though Vijay has so far identified the DMK and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) at the national level as obvious rivals, the TVK may become an existential threat to at least some smaller parties outside the two coalitions led by the DMK and the AIADMK.

These small political groups, limited by region or caste, have often only accounted for a share of less than 20% of the state’s votes. Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK), led by another actor-turned-politician Seemanachieved a vote share of 6.6% in 2021, the highest among non-aligned candidates in the election.

Voting margins could be even slimmer in the 2026 multi-party fight, making coalition partners invaluable. The DMK and AIADMK might find it difficult to retain their old friends when the person they are attracted to is an actor at the peak of his career who ventures into politics, bringing thousands of young people to his very first rally as a politician . a difficult question to ignore.

The window is open for people like Pattali Makkal Katchi (3.8% vote share in 2021) – allied with the BJP for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections – and, some would say, even for the Indian National Congress (an ally of the DMK) with a vote share of 4, 3% in the last state election.

However, both parties, left to their own devices, have limited political weight in the state. And parties with a long history may be reluctant to play second fiddle to the youngest kid on the block.

Is a TVK-AIADMK alliance possible?

At this point, for Vijay, AIADMK and NTK may seem the easiest to ally with. Together, the three parties have the potential to garner half or more of all the votes.

However, the alliance will later face a difficult question to resolve. Who will be the chief minister if he wins? The same problem resurfaces: who wants to play second fiddle?

Seeman, so far, has already stated that he will continue to fight alone.

AIADMK chief Edappadi Palanisamy has already proven his mettle by surviving a full term as the state’s chief minister till 2021, against all odds. Palanisamy has been active in politics since 1974. The 70-year-old former chief minister is unlikely to settle for newbie Vijay as his boss.

What Vijay can learn from actors-turned-politicians in the recent past

Another actor turned politician, Pawan Kalyan has set an example in the neighboring state of Andhra Pradesh. In what appeared to be a frank admission of limited political clout, Kalyan agreed to serve as a bridge in building the alliance between Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and the BJP. He added votes, seats and charm to his political persona.

At this point, Vijay has every reason to believe that his star power far exceeds that of Pawan Kalyan. He may even be right. But wise people would do well to remember that politics can be more humiliating than you think, as one’s elder in the film industry learned the hard way.

Kamal Haasananother big film star, started by throwing a torch (the symbol of his party) at a television set (symbolizing the DMK-led establishment) in one of the campaign advertisements. His large fan base built over decades did not translate into votes in 2021 and ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, he joined the same DMK coalition he wanted to rally against.

Vijay learned from the late Captain Vijaykanth

Vijay seems to be following in the footsteps of the late Vijaykanth, another actor who entered politics in 2005.

TVK’s first rally took place at Vikravandi, around 70 kilometers from Vridhachalam, from where Captain Vijaykanth launched his party. Vijay is targeting voters in the same area, in the northern districts of Tamil Nadu.

Vijay fans can get a lot of hope from the late Vijaykanth’s political journey with the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK)which started in 2005 and by 2011 it was already the largest opposition in the state; despite the presence of stalwarts like J Jayalalithaa and K Karunanidhi.

Vijay’s entry comes after the demise of the two iconic leaders, leaving a huge political vacuum.

Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa had underestimated Vijaykanth’s political potential at the time. He was already well past the peak of his popularity, unlike Vijay whose acting career was at its peak when he entered politics.

DMK and AIADMK would do well not to underestimate TVK, and Vijay would do well to remember that the same fans who call him the GOAT in Tamil cinema do not necessarily convert into voters.