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Tropical Storm Sara could form and become a hurricane

Umito November 14, 2024

A new storm could hit Florida by the middle of next week as a Category 3 hurricane, according to the latest punch in relentless Atlantic hurricane season it cost the lives of at least 326 people and caused 120 billion dollars in damage.

Some forecast models indicate the storm, which will be named Sara, will reach wind speeds in excess of 110 mph and bring catastrophic flooding and storm watches to Central America by this weekend. The Gulf Coast has already experienced five hurricanes this season.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say the storm is now a “potential tropical cyclone 18,” a tropical wave moving westward into the Caribbean. The system is expected to become Tropical Storm Sara on Thursday.

The hurricane center said as of 4 p.m. Wednesday that the system was centered about 460 miles east of Isla Guanaja, Honduras. The government of Honduras issued a hurricane watch and Nicaragua issued a tropical storm watch.

The storm is expected to dump up to 30 inches of rain on northern Honduras, the hurricane center said.

Some computer models indicate that Sara could become a major hurricane threatening the Florida coast, although it is still “too early to determine what impacts the system could have on the Gulf of Mexico, Florida and Cuba”, the center said in the 4 p.m. update. .

The center’s initial forecast track calls for a tropical storm near the coast of Honduras on Friday, where it could linger for a few days as a tropical storm, then make landfall in Belize on Monday. Heavy rain is forecast in Jamaica over the next few days and in Central America until early next week.

AccuWeather, a private weather service, said in its Wednesday afternoon forecast that it expects the storm to intensify into a Category 3 hurricane over the weekend.

“AccuWeather hurricane experts are increasingly concerned about the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flooding in parts of Central America, particularly near steep terrain in parts of Honduras and Nicaragua,” Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter said in the forecast. “These communities are particularly vulnerable to flooding, as tragically demonstrated by major catastrophic floods in this region in modern times, including Hurricane Mitch in 1998, which tragically claimed the lives of more than 11,000 people, and floods devastating effects caused by hurricanes Eta and Iota in 2020.

The storm’s interaction with Central America and other surrounding weather conditions will determine the system’s final intensity and destination. As the system is still forming, without a well-defined center, the average uncertainty in the forecast path is greater than normal, the center said.

The storm could take advantage of “some unusually favorable late-season conditions” to strengthen early next week,” wrote Michael Lowry, hurricane specialist and storm surge expert at WPLG-TV in South Florida. , in its daily update on Tuesday.

Water temperatures in the Caribbean are warmer than normal, but temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico hit a record high this week, according to graphs of ocean heat content curated by Brian McNoldy, senior research scientist at the Rosenstiel School at the University of Miami. Warm water helps fuel hurricanes.

Lowry and other meteorologists say two key questions will determine whether the disturbance could threaten the United States. Early next week, the system is expected to begin moving slowly northwest, but precisely when it turns could make a difference in both the strength and location of the system. .

“If a tropical storm or hurricane forms in the western Caribbean, its path will likely be strongly influenced by the position of a high pressure dome along the southern Atlantic coast of the United States,” AccuWeather said Tuesday .

For now, the chaotic nature of the model’s trajectories indicates “high uncertainty” in the forecasts, Lowry said. If the storm moves over Central America or Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, the interaction could weaken it. However, he added, if it stays off the Caribbean, there is a good chance it will strengthen and be headed toward the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

Given the environmental conditions in the region, several models used to forecast potential intensity suggest that a potential hurricane could reach Category 3 status, with winds in excess of 180 km/h, and one of them suggests that it could reach Category 4 status, according to the website. Tropicaltidbits.com, maintained by meteorologist Levi Cowan.

If a sixth hurricane makes landfall along the Gulf of Mexico, it would tie the 1886 record for the most landfalls in a season on the U.S. Gulf Coast, McNoldy posted on social media Tuesday. With five hurricanes so far this season, 2024 is tied with 2005 and 2020 for the second-most Gulf hurricanes ever recorded in a season.

November hurricanes are rather unusual. Only three hurricanes have ever hit the United States or made landfall in November, one in 1861 and one in 1935, as well as Hurricane Kate in 1985. according to NOAA records.

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A busy 2024 hurricane season

So far, 2024 is the 11th most active season in terms of number of hurricane days and accumulated cyclone energy since meteorologists began observing hurricanes by satellite in 1966, said research scientist Phil Klotzbach principal at Colorado State University. The Hurricane Energy Index calculates the total energy of a season based on the storm frequency and maximum wind speed of each hurricane over its lifetime.

Among the most active seasons were 2005 and 2020, the two years when the hurricane center exhausted its initial list of names and turned to a backup list, according to Klotzbach. Seven of the most active seasons have occurred in this century.

The 2024 season matches pretty closely with NOAA and Colorado State University’s preseason forecasts for hurricanes and major hurricanes. Only named storms are behind these seasonal forecasts. Although the season started off busy, including a record Beryl, a lull in August surprised forecasters, but 12 named storms have developed since early September.

Hurricanes making landfall in 2024

Beryl – Matagorda County, Texas

Déby – Taylor County, FloridaAnd South Carolina

Francine – Terrebonne Parish, Louisiana

Helene – Taylor County, Florida

Milton – Sarasota County, Florida

Learn more about the 2024 season

Dinah Voyles Pulver covers climate change and the environment for USA TODAY. She has been writing about hurricanes, tornadoes and severe weather for over 30 years. Contact her at [email protected] or @dinahvp on Bluesky or X.