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Expect ‘huge sucking sound’ of foreign capital inflows as US dominance of global finance increases, says leading economist
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Expect ‘huge sucking sound’ of foreign capital inflows as US dominance of global finance increases, says leading economist

Wall Street is booming as an expected Republican election victory raises hopes of lower taxes and deregulation, making U.S. financial markets more attractive to the rest of the world, an economist at fame.

In a interview on Bloomberg TV Friday, Allianz Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed El-Erian was asked whether investors should expect a positive growth shock accompanied by rising inflation.

“The direction ahead is clear: more growth, slightly higher inflation, a higher need for public sector borrowing, and a huge noise of aspiration where a lot of foreign capital will end up in the United States,” he said. -he replied.

The extent of these trends will become more evident when the policies of the new Trump administration become clearer — and when the people who will implement them become known, El-Erian added.

Just days after the presidential election, discussions about possible Cabinet appointments are already intensifying. Friday, the Financial Times reported that Robert Lighthizer, who served as U.S. Trade Representative during Trump’s first term, had been asked to serve in the role again.

At the same time, the position of Treasury Secretary will probably be offered to a financier, the FT was added, with hedge fund managers Scott Bessent and John Paulson considered as possibilities.

Meanwhile, the rest of the world may have a harder time coping with a period of faster growth and higher inflation, adding to America’s relative advantage, El-Erian said.

“This is a period in which American dominance over the global system will increase, both for positive and negative short-term reasons,” he explained. “The rest of the world just can’t build enough pipelines around the United States. They try and they do, but those pipelines are very small compared to the size of the United States.”

Indeed, despite fears that Trump’s tax cuts, tariffs and immigration crackdown would be inflationary and worsen deficits, bond yields have come back down after soaring immediately after the election.

El-Erian explained that this is because US bonds have become more attractive compared to those of other advanced economies.

Continued demand for Treasuries would help the federal government finance what is expected to be a debt explosion under another Trump presidency.

Before the election, the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget said its policy could add $7.5 trillion to the debt, or even up to $15.2 trillion..

But if investors, especially “the vigilantes of the links”, If governments balk at the huge volumes of debt being auctioned off by the Treasury Department, they could drive up yields and increase borrowing costs in key segments of the economy, like mortgage rates.

In a The Wall Street Journal opinion article Tuesday, however, black rock Larry Fink, chairman and CEO, said faster economic growth would help make U.S. debt more manageable.

“If GDP grows by an average of 3% in real terms over the next five years, the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio would remain roughly stable at a high, but reasonable, level,” he wrote.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com