Perhaps the biggest waste of the federal government is the amount of “improper payments” made each year by the Medicare and Medicaid programs. In 2023, for example, these errors will cost taxpayers dearly more than 100 billion dollars.

This is worth noting for two reasons, following the announcement of President-elect Donald Trump’s decision to asked Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to lead a new Department of Government Effectiveness (DOGE). Despite its name, DOGE appears to be more of an unofficial advisory board that will work with the White House Office of Budget and Management (OMB), and Trump says it will help “eliminate the massive waste and fraud that exist everywhere” in the world. the government’s $6 trillion budget.

First, it’s not as if there is any secret knowledge for DOGE to discover when it comes to fixing the federal government’s widespread inefficiencies. These Medicare and Medicaid overpayments are documented annuallyFor example. The Government Accountability Office and various inspectors general file regular reports. The Congressional Budget Office keep a list things that could be cut to reduce the deficit. Various members of Congress, most in a good place, Senator Rand Paul (R – Ky.) – periodically publishes lists of stupid, wasteful or questionable government spending.

In short, what is missing is not the ideas, but the political will to act on them.

The degree of political will will matter, because it is very relevant to the second point: unless Trump is willing to set aside his promise not to touch American social programsthe DOGE will not be able to carry out its mandate.

Again, look at these irregular payments made by Medicare and Medicaid. THE $101.4 billion in irregular payments the two payments made in 2023 accounted for 40% of all improper payments across the government that year, according to the GAO. That same GAO report suggested a simple change in how Medicaid bills for some of its services that, if implemented, could save $141 billion over 10 years.

This should be the low-hanging fruit for any serious government-wide anti-waste effort — but it remains off-limits as long as Trump refuses to consider changes to entitlement programs.

The same problem appears when you start looking at other big swings DOGE could take. Seven of the best nine suggestions The Congressional Budget Office’s annual report on “options for reducing the deficit” involves changing elements of all three U.S. federal welfare programs. Capping Medicaid spending, raising Medicare Part B premiums or reconfiguring how Social Security benefits are delivered to the wealthiest Americans could save hundreds of billions of dollars over the next decade. Nothing will be possible until the reform of social rights is considered.

All this depends on the financial reality of the federal government: social rights constitute the largest and fastest growing segment of the budget. This year, so-called “mandatory” spending – primarily Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, as well as a few other government-funded health care programs – will be costs nearly $4 trillionwhile all discretionary spending will total less than $1.8 trillion.

Musk has promised $2 trillion in spending cutsbut he could propose eliminating all discretionary spending – good luck getting the Pentagon to zero – but he still wouldn’t achieve that goal. It’s impossible to be serious tax reform while promising not to touch social programs.

This is why the question of political will is important. If DOGE is to be something more than a meme version of Tom Coburn’s DOGE Congressional Pigs Bookhe will have to break down the political opposition that has blocked countless other efforts to reduce public spending. It is relatively easy to report waste, fraud and abuse. It’s harder to get Congress to cut programs that funnel public money into voters and business owners. Social rights reform is even more difficult to achieve.

Of course, libertarians should welcome any discussion of shrinking government, and personally, I wish Musk and Ramaswamy the best of luck in this endeavor. If nothing else, the project is sure to be “extremely tragic and extremely entertaining.” as Musk promised.

Still, it seems prudent to withhold praise until DOGE has put forward some ideas and indicated how he thinks the White House and Congress will accomplish these things. As long as Trump remains adamant about maintaining the status quo for America’s welfare programs, DOGE’s bark will likely be scarier than its fiscal bite.