SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) – Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 is drifting north across the Caribbean with sustained winds of 35 mph. It is not yet organized enough to meet the criteria for a named storm, but it is very likely to become Tropical Storm Rafael in the next 12 to 24 hours.

Current forecasts show the disturbance will become a Category 1 hurricane as it moves toward Jamaica and Cuba. The high terrain of western Cuba will weaken the storm as it passes through the island, and increased wind shear once it enters the Gulf of Mexico should prevent any significant strengthening as it passes near Florida.

Rain and thunderstorms should be expected across the Suncoast Wednesday evening and Thursday as the system passes south and west as a tropical storm, although exact timing and severity details are uncertain for the moment. Significant wind and storm surge impacts are unlikely.

After this time, the models diverge in the direction they predict for the system. Forecasts from the National Hurricane Center show it will move northwest into the central Gulf of Mexico on Friday, but they point out that forecasts for the end of this week are much more uncertain than usual.

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