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    • Allan Lichtman explains why his Harris victory prediction was wrong
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    Allan Lichtman explains why his Harris victory prediction was wrong

    Umito Posted on

    Allan Lichtmanthe historian known for predicting the outcome of the presidential election, explains what happened with his incorrect selection of the vice president Kamala Harris this lap of the track.

    Before this week, the American University professor had correctly predicted nine of the last ten elections. His previous success rate of 90% fell to 81.8% after his election. Donald Trump decisively secured a second term in the White House four years after losing re-election to President Joe Biden.

    “It feels like it’s been a year since Tuesday,” Lichtman said during a YouTube livestream Thursday evening hosted by his son, Samuel Lichtman. “I admit I was wrong. I called Harris the winner and she didn’t win. But I was far from the only forecaster to be wrong. Most of the other models were wrong.”

    Lichtman shared the two main reasons why he “13 keys to the White House“The prediction system has failed this year, including disregard for the Biden-Harris administration and delaying the start of Harris’ campaign after Biden withdrew from the election on July 21. He added that Harris was the only candidate in modern history to avoid participating in primaries and caucuses was also a factor despite Democrats “doing their best.”

    “I don’t think I called the hits wrong,” Lichtman said. “The key contest was made problematic by what happened to the Democratic Party, but I don’t think you can say I misinterpreted it except in retrospect. At the time, it was the most reasonable decision.”

    He also spoke of an “incredible explosion of misinformation” on platforms like

    Why did Lichtman predict Harris would win?

    Lichtman used his long-standing system of “13 keys to the White House” to form his prediction that Harris would beat Trump.

    “Lichtman”13 keys to the White House” include:

    • Key 1 (party mandate): After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the United States House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
    • Key 2 (Competition): There is no serious competition for the nomination of the outgoing party.
    • Key 3 (Incumbent): The candidate of the outgoing party is the current president.
    • Key 4 (Third Party): There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
    • Key 5 (Short-Term Economy): The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
    • Key 6 (Long-Term Economy): Real economic growth per capita during the term is equal to or greater than the average growth during the previous two terms.
    • Key 7 (Policy Change): The current administration influences major changes in national policy.
    • Key 8 (Social Unrest): There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
    • Key 9 (Scandal): The administration in place is not marred by any major scandal.
    • Key 10 (Foreign/Military Failure): The current administration does not suffer any major failures in foreign or military affairs.
    • Key 11 (Foreign/Military Success): The current administration achieves major success in foreign or military affairs.
    • Key 12 (Incumbent Party Charisma): The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
    • Key 13 (Challenger Charisma): The challenger party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

    Using his system, Lichtman has correctly predicted nine of eleven presidential elections since 1984. His first fault came when Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore in the 2000 election.

    Is he changing his “13 keys” system?

    Lichtman confirmed he would not change his 13-key system, which he said still has a high success rate.

    “I don’t think the problem is with the keys themselves. You can’t change a model on the fly based on how it failed in a single election. The model was built over the course of 41 elections,” Lichtman said.

    He said his predictions, which often run counter to most policy experts, remain a more effective indicator than other models.

    “We’ve never seen numbers like this in modern American history. Especially in light of how Democrats have managed to get their vote up to this point. Why all of a sudden are Democrats falling off the cliff?” » said Lichtman. “But we keep going. Maybe we’ll find out in a future show.”

    What did Lichtman say about Nate Silver’s prediction?

    Lichtman cited Nate Silver’s final 2024 forecast, which also predicted a Harris victory, in a Monday X article before Election Day.

    Man-Licht shared a post on X on Mondaystating, “Nate Silver’s poll compilation is so unreliable that he now says who wins the presidency depends on luck.”

    The 77-year-old historian responds to a Post X shared by Silver on Monday explaining how his final election predictions could be decided by “luck.”

    “This could literally end up in a range where who is ahead in our final forecast is determined by luck,” Silver’s message read. “There is still some variance introduced by running ‘only’ 40,000 simulations (we’ll run 80,000 tonight but still…).”

    Ccontributors: Natalie Neysa Alund and Jonathan Limehouse

    Umito
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