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Pre-election jobs report reveals Biden-Harris trend: Private sector slows while government expands
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Pre-election jobs report reveals Biden-Harris trend: Private sector slows while government expands

The final jobs statistics released ahead of Tuesday’s election not only soured economists, they also revealed an unambiguous trajectory for the Biden-Harris economy: Private-sector jobs slow while government work continues to grow.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics report on Friday found that the U.S. economy added only 12,000 jobs in October, well below the 100,000 expected.

While public sector employment continued to hum, jobs in the manufacturing and service sectors fell, a blow to Vice President Kamala Harris’ efforts to sell her economic vision to undecided voters. Additionally, the agency said it also deducted 100,000 jobs from the previous month’s tally.

“It was a very, very bad report,” said economist and former Trump adviser Stephen Moore. John Solomon Reports podcast.

“When you look at the revisions from previous months, you know, we lost 100,000 jobs. So that’s number one, that is, including the jobs created in October, minus the jobs that they overestimated in previous months, that’s 100,000 fewer than we thought “Moore said. “Second, in the private sector, the overall employment level was 12,000. This is the worst employment report we have had in three and a half years.

Trump’s campaign immediately seized on the news by invading battleground states during the final weekend of the 2024 election.

“This jobs report is a disaster and definitively reveals how Kamala Harris has broken our economy,” the campaign wrote in a statement. “In a single month, the failure of Kamala’s economic program destroyed nearly 30,000 private sector jobs and nearly 50,000 manufacturing jobs.

“Working families are being fleeced by the Harris-Biden economic agenda. Kamala broke the economy. President Trump will fix it,” he adds.

Harris has worked to improve its image on the economy, promising that she can better solve the problems voters care about than her opponent. His surrogates tried to put a positive spin on Friday’s numbers, suggesting this is a temporary blip due to strikes and hurricanes and that employment overall is continuing to grow.

Harris herself was more realistic.

“We have a lot of work ahead of us, but we know that hard work is good work,” Harris wrote on X. “With your help in November, we will win.”

The steady increase in government hiring while other sectors lag is a notable trend in recent jobs reports from the Biden administration. Financial analysts have already expressed concerns about this trend in job growth, warning that it could prove unsustainable in the long term.

The most recent employment figures show that the largest job losses have occurred in the private sector, mainly in manufacturing and other business services, which are offset by strong hiring in government and health sectors.

“If you take away the government jobs that were created, then the economy lost jobs,” Moore said. “So it’s difficult to put any positive spin on this report.”

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the manufacturing sector lost 46,000 people in October. General business services saw a slightly larger decline, with 47,000 fewer jobs than in September. Most other private sectors besides healthcare saw net job losses or no change from the previous month, with the exception of construction which saw a slight but minimal increase.

The bureau noted that pressures resulting from the aftermath of two hurricanes Helene and Milton could affect some industries, but would have little impact on the overall unemployment rate. Strikes at Boeing could also have fueled the decline of manufacturing jobsaccording to the Wall Street Journal.

After a jobs report stronger than expected Earlier this year, an economist told Fox Business that the role of government jobs in inflating the numbers could be a cause for concern.

“It’s a little disconcerting that the job growth is in sectors that aren’t necessarily your productive sectors,” Jeffrey Roach, an economist for LPL Financial, told the news outlet.

“You never want to see government become the primary driver of recruiting,” Roach said. “They’re quick to take time off, so it can go either way. You may see a massive rebound in hiring, but once the sluggishness wears off, you may see a reversal of that trend.”

The trend of strong hiring in the government sector appears to be continuing for a second year. In 2023, nearly 25% of all job gains under the Biden administration were in government jobs.

The jobs figures follow two other negative economic indicators this week that run counter to forecasts: higher-than-expected inflation and weaker-than-expected GDP growth.

Employment figures are also in in the wake of an announcement for another measure that has become the focal point of both campaigns: inflation.

On Thursday, the government announced that the measure of core inflation had risen, posting its biggest increase since April and beating economists’ forecasts.

Inflation has remained an important election issue and has colored the national debate over the economy under the Biden administration, which has seen the inflation rate reach a record high. maximum of 9.1% in June 2022compared to 1.4% at the end of the Trump administration.

On Wednesday, the Commerce Department reported that gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a lower-than-estimated pace of 3.1%. Growth, although lower than expected, was driven by strong consumer spending. But the department also cited federal government spending, which rose 9.7 percent, as a factor in the growth.

“We’re growing the economy in the specific areas where we’re not: We want the government to shrink because we have a $2 trillion deficit,” Moore said. “So we should be cutting jobs in government and we want to be creating jobs in the private sector. What we’re doing under President Biden, you know, is the exact opposite.”

The Harris campaign did not respond to an inquiry seeking comment on the employment numbers. The White House said that despite “the devastation caused by Hurricanes Helene and Milton and new strikes” that are holding back job growth, “the U.S. economy remains strong.”