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India’s Modi likely to find comfort in Trump’s return and a shared worldview
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India’s Modi likely to find comfort in Trump’s return and a shared worldview

Donald Trump’s return to the White House has many countries feeling uneasy and recalculating their position vis-à-vis the United States, but India appears to welcome the change that could embolden nationalist leaders like Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

NEW DELHI (AP) — Donald Trump’s return to the White House has made many countries anxious and recalculate where they stand relative to the United States, but India appears to welcome the change that could embolden nationalist leaders like Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

“I know today many countries are nervous about the United States, let’s be honest about that,” Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said over the weekend. India was “not part of it”. A call from Modi “was among the first three calls, I think, that President (elect) Trump accepted,” he added.

A second Trump presidency would likely work in New Delhi’s favor, experts say, especially as Modi seeks to repair India’s relations with the West after recent friction over his refusal to join sanctions against Russia or condemn its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Modi has also been criticized over India’s attitude. democratic backsliding.

“Trump’s victory means that Indian policies that have put New Delhi at odds with the West… will no longer be a source of concern for Washington,” said Michael Kugelman, South Asia director at the Wilson Center.

There could be rifts on goals on trade, immigration and climate change – but overall, “Trump’s return means that India’s relationship with the West – and in particularly with its most powerful country – will be strengthened,” he added.

Modi has sought to establish India as an emerging global player with a fast-growing economy capable of countering China. But critics say its authoritarian politics and the right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party have deeply polarized the country with minorities. increasingly marginalized and the right to freedom of expression and freedom of the press is under attack.

When President Joe Biden honored Modi with a state visit last year, he walked a tightrope as activists and groups pressured him to confront Modi over his human rights record. The two leaders nevertheless concluded new trade agreements in the fields of defense and technology.

Such concerns won’t be a problem with Trump, said Uday Chandra, an expert on South Asia and foreign policy. “It’s a refreshing reset from the Indian perspective… it’s much more transactional.”

Trump, long an outspoken admirer of Russian President Vladimir Putin, is also likely to be more understanding of India’s strategic partnership with Moscow, which dates back to the Cold War, its record purchases of Russian crude and its refusal to choose a side in the conflict. war in Ukraine. “That’s the real thorn in India-US relations over the last two years…but with Trump, I don’t see that being a problem,” Chandra said.

One of the burning issues is trade. During his first term, trade differences between the two countries came to the fore when Trump called India the “king of tariffs” over disagreements over agricultural products, Harley Davidson motorcycles and appliances. medical. In 2019, he rolled back the country’s special trade privileges, and India responded by imposing tariffs on more than two dozen U.S. products.

This time, Trump wants impose a “universal” tax of 10% or 20% on all imports and increase customs duties on Chinese products to 60%. India, which counts the United States as its second largest trading partner, will be no exception.

“New Delhi will have to do more than just tinker with its policies to deal with Trump’s emphasis on fair trade,” said C Rajamohan, a professor at the Institute of South Asian Studies in Singapore.

Immigration could become a flashpoint if Trump also tries to curb skilled immigration. Indians are often the largest group to apply for the job. H1-B work visa but Trump called the visa program “very bad” and “unfair” for American workers.

Progress on climate change and clean energy could also be jeopardized.

“India and the United States have done a lot in this area over the past four years, but that could collapse because the Trump administration is more aligned with the fossil fuel industry than green technology” , said Milan Vaishnav, South Asia. Program Director at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Both Trump and Modi embody strongman tactics, rely on a passionate support base and have intensified polarization to consolidate votes. And unlike Western liberal leaders, Trump does not view Modi’s policies at home as problematic — or even relevant, Kugelman said.

“They are both ardent nationalists committed to making their nation stronger, at home and abroad,” he added.

Analysts also point out the personal connection between the two. When Trump visited India in 2020, Modi hosted an event for him at the world’s largest cricket stadium.

The year before, Trump held a massive rally in support of Modi in Texas and compared him to Elvis Presley for his crowd-drawing power. In his congratulatory message to Trump on X last week, Modi shared photos of the two leaders kissing, smiling and holding hands.

“There’s a bromance between the two,” Chandra said. “But they are also united by a common worldview: we are in a post-liberal world and liberalism as an ideology for conducting global politics is no longer viable. This is as true in India as in America.”