The two parties that have dominated Puerto Rican politics for decades are losing their grip in the face of the toughest competition yet from a younger generation fed up with the island’s corruption, chronic power outages and mismanagement of public funds .

For the first time in the island’s gubernatorial race, a third-party candidate has a solid second lead in the polls ahead of Tuesday’s election in the U.S. territory — and some experts say there’s a chance that he wins.

“This election is already historic,” said political analyst and university professor Jorge Schmidt Nieto. “This already marks a before and an after.”

Juan Dalmau is running for the Puerto Rico Independence Party and the Citizen Victory Movement, established in 2019. An international Gaither poll this month shows Dalmau closing in on New Progressive Party member and Rep. Jenniffer González of Puerto Rico in Congress. She defeated Governor Pedro Pierluisi in their party’s primaries in June.

The Gaither poll shows Dalmau with 29% support to González’s 31%, as he has almost caught up since another poll in July gave him only 24% to González’s 43%. In third place, Jesús Manuel Ortiz, of the Popular Democratic Party, followed by Javier Jiménez of the Dignity Project, a conservative party created in 2019.

Under pressure

Puerto Rican politics revolves around the status of the island and, until 2016, the New Progressive Party, which supports statehood, and the Popular Democratic Party, which supports the status quo, would share at least 90%. of all votes in the general election, Schmidt said. .

But that year, the U.S. Congress created a federal control board to oversee Puerto Rico’s finances after the government announced it was unable to pay a public debt of more than $70 billion. In 2017, Puerto Rico filed for bankruptcy in the largest U.S. municipal bankruptcy in history.

The debt has accumulated over decades of corruption, mismanagement and excessive borrowing, with the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority still struggling to restructure its more than $9 billion in debt, the largest of all government agencies.

Puerto Ricans largely rejected and resented the council, created a year before Hurricane Maria slammed into the island as a powerful Category 4 storm, destroying the power grid.

In 2020, Pierluisi won but only received 33% of the vote. His opponent from the Popular Democratic Party obtained 32%. It was the first time that one of the two parties failed to reach 40% of the vote.

Power outages that have persisted since the election, coupled with slow rebuilding after the hurricane, have frustrated and angered voters. Under Pierluisi, the government signed contracts with two companies, Luma Energy and Genera PR, which together oversee the production, transmission and distribution of electricity. The outages persisted, with companies blaming a network that was already collapsing before the hurricane due to a lack of maintenance and investment.

“Disastrous things have happened during this four-year term, particularly with regard to electric power,” Schmidt said. “It affected everyone, regardless of social class.”

Voters, he said, view Tuesday’s election “as a moment of revenge.”

Dalmau said he would oust both companies in an “organized” manner within six months if he became governor. Ortiz said he would cancel Luma’s contract, while González called for the creation of an “energy czar” who would review potential violations of Luma’s contract while waiting to find another operator.

Jennifer Lopez is making noise when she calls out the controversial joke made about Puerto Rico at a Trump rally and supports Vice President Kamala Harris.

However, no contract may be canceled without prior approval from the Federal Control Commission and the Puerto Rico Energy Office.

Candidates are also under pressure to create affordable housing, reduce electricity bills and the overall cost of living, reduce violent crime, boost Puerto Rico’s economy as the island has been locked out of capital markets since 2015, and improve a crumbling health system as thousands of doctors flock to the American continent.

Dalmau, who suspended his campaign for two weeks in mid-October after his wife underwent emergency brain surgery, also said he would eliminate tax breaks for wealthy mainland U.S. citizens.

Apathy dominates

Despite their promises to turn Puerto Rico around, the candidates face persistent voter apathy.

In 2008, 1.9 million out of 2.5 million registered voters participated in that year’s elections, compared to 1.3 million out of 2.3 million in 2020.

This year, nearly 99,000 new voters registered and more than 87,000 reactivated their status, according to the Puerto Rico State Election Commission.

“A much higher number was expected,” Schmidt said.

He noted that middle-aged and older people favor González and his pro-state party, while those under 45 “overwhelmingly” favor Dalmau, meaning that while a majority of younger voters participate Tuesday and fewer older voters do so, he could have a chance of winning.

The Bad Bunny Factor

The months leading up to the November 5 election were controversial.

Reggaetón superstar Bad Bunny has financed dozens of billboards criticizing Puerto Rico’s two major parties. In response, the governor’s New Progressive Party funded a billboard suggesting an obscenity in reference to Bad Bunny.

On Friday, the singer published a one-page letter in a local newspaper mocking González’s pro-state party.

Although the artist has not supported any local officials, the only person he recently started following on Instagram was Dalmau.

On Sunday, he appeared briefly at Dalmau’s campaign close. Silence fell over a crowd of tens of thousands as Bad Bunny spoke before singing, saying he did not support any particular candidate or party.

“My party is the people… My party is Puerto Rico,” he declared, then praising the alliance between the Puerto Rico Independence Party and the Movement for citizen victory.

Meanwhile, a so-called “graveyard of corruption” was set up in the capital, San Juan, on Thursday, showing large black-and-white photos of nearly a dozen politicians from the island’s two main parties who have been charged or convicted by federal authorities. over the last few years. It was created by Eva Prados of the Citizen Victory Movement, a candidate for the Puerto Rico House. On Friday, police reported the photos had been destroyed or stolen.

As the race heats up, so has the number of formal complaints about alleged election crimes. These include people who report having received early voting confirmations even though they did not request them.

Live from New York, it’s Kamala Harris! On Saturday, Nov. 2, the vice president made a surprise appearance on “Saturday Night Live” during the cold open alongside Maya Rudolph, who also represented her.

A lingering question

On Tuesday, voters will also be asked for the seventh time what Puerto Rico’s political status should be.

The non-binding referendum will feature three choices: statehood, independence and independence with free association, under which issues such as foreign affairs, US citizenship and the use of the US dollar would be negotiated.

Regardless of the outcome, a change in status requires approval from the U.S. Congress.

“For many people, voting in a non-binding referendum is a demoralizing exercise,” said Christina Ponsa-Kraus, a professor at Columbia Law School. “The reason Puerto Ricans have voted seven times is because every time they vote, Congress does nothing.”

The pressure for a change of status does not depend on the victory of Kamala Harris or Donald Trump on the American continent.

“It’s not just about who becomes president, but who controls Congress,” Ponsa-Kraus said, calling on Congress to offer Puerto Rico “non-colonial options.”

She added that it is difficult to say whether the governorship led by Dalmau, who has long represented the Puerto Rico Independence Party, would impact the plebiscite vote.

“My feeling is… people can distinguish between a candidate and a status option,” she said. “I believe that Puerto Ricans still have not supported independence because they do not want to lose their citizenship, and they do not want to lose the ability to move freely between the mainland United States and the island.”