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Following Donald Trump’s re-election, serious questions are being asked about whether Prime Minister Justin Trudeau can repair his relationship with a notoriously vindictive man he spent years denigrating. That’s why we were pleased to see Ontario Premier Doug Ford acknowledge that the political calculus has changed.

Tuesday, Ford noted that Mexico is used as a “back door for Chinese cars, auto parts and other products to the Canadian and American markets.” If Mexico does not act “at the very least by balancing Canadian and U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports,” Ford argued that we should “prioritize the world’s closest economic partnership by directly negotiating an agreement of bilateral free trade between the United States and Canada that puts American and Canadian workers first.

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This sounds similar to the rhetoric adopted by Trump. During the election campaign, Trump criticized China’s use of Mexican auto parts factories as a way to circumvent trade restrictions and gain a foothold in the North American market, and threatened to impose tariffs of up to 200% on Mexican vehicles unless the country takes action. to put an end to this practice.

There is no doubt that the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and its successor, the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), have been extremely beneficial to the Canadian economy. Ideally, the highly integrated North American Free Trade Area should endure for years to come.

But if Trump is prepared to reject CUSMA instead of China by using Mexico as a backdoor into the North American market, Canada must be prepared to play along – and recognize, as Ford said, that preserving our trade relationship with the United States is much more important. more important than ensuring that Mexico remains a party to the agreement.

It should be noted that this is exactly what Ford suggested: not that Mexico should be excluded from CUSMA, but that if it does not start taking the threat posed by China seriously, as Trump asked, Canada and the United States may have to do so. go it alone.

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In all likelihood, Chinese automakers will see what is happening and refrain from making new investments in Mexico, at least for the next four years. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration will also realize that Chinese investments would not make up for the losses the country would suffer if it were no longer part of CUSMA.

The only question is how much pain all parties will have to endure to get to that eventuality. And in that regard, following Ford’s lead in speaking Trump’s language and engaging in similar negotiating tactics would seem to be a politically smart move.

Unfortunately, this is not the kind of skillful political maneuvering one would expect from Justin Trudeau. Days after Trump’s election, liberals reconstituted a defunct cabinet committee on relations between the United States and Canada, in order to give the impression that Ottawa is trying to anticipate the situation. But the bad blood and significant policy differences between the two leaders threaten to derail our relationship with our most important trading partner.

One big difference is how they view China. Trump was one of the first world leaders to criticize Beijing for its aggressive trade practices and economic warfare. Trudeau, by contrast, has spent the last decade cozying up to China. Even repeated warnings from our intelligence agencies that communists were actively interfering in our elections were not enough to make him take the Chinese threat seriously.

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Ford clearly understands that by publicly acknowledging that Beijing is not a benevolent actor and that future trade negotiations could involve difficult choices, Canada and Mexico would be seen as allies in future negotiations with the Trump administration, rather as adversaries. Of course, there’s not much Ford can do since his government has no control over international trade deals. Yet as premier of the province that is home to the vast majority of Canada’s auto sector, Ford’s voice carries weight.

More importantly, it demonstrates that at least some Canadian politicians are able to put aside any personal differences they may have with Donald Trump to focus on finding mutually beneficial solutions.

Relations between Canada and the United States could be strained over the next year, but the prospect of a new Conservative government in 2025 and provincial premiers able to find common ground with the new administration offers some hope for the future of our bilateral relations. Trump’s influence may even prove to be the push Canada needs to up its defense game and start taking seriously the threat posed by adversaries like China.

National Post

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