NEW ORLEANS (WGNO) — Hurricane Rafael continues to intensify and now displays a well-defined eye as it approaches Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico.

Radar data from the Cayman Islands, along with observations from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft, confirm that Rafael has developed a double eyewall structure – a typical feature of strengthening hurricanes.

Hurricane Hunters also found that maximum sustained wind speeds increased to about 115 miles per hour, prompting the National Hurricane Center to classify Rafael as a Category 3 storm.

As Rafael approaches western Cuba, it remains in an environment favorable for continued intensification. Warm ocean waters and slight wind shear favor hurricane development. Although Rafael may experience a temporary slowdown in intensification due to a cycle of eyewall replacement, the storm is expected to remain a major hurricane before making landfall in western Cuba later today.

Some weakening is expected as Rafael moves over Cuba, but it is expected to maintain hurricane strength as it tracks southeast and into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Increased wind shear and dry air could weaken Rafael in the Gulf, although a more southerly track could expose it to less hostile conditions, adding uncertainty to forecast strength.

Rafael is currently moving northwest at about 13 mph, guided by a high pressure system over the southwest Atlantic. This system is expected to move westward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico in the coming days, forcing Rafael to turn more westward as it enters the southern Gulf.

Forecast models align with Rafael’s track over the next two to three days, but uncertainty increases significantly beyond that time frame.

The high pressure area is expected to remain north of Rafael, causing the National Hurricane Center’s projected track to shift south after three days. The NHC also noted in its discussion of the forecast that further adjustments to the trajectory may be necessary.

As Rafael approaches land, authorities have issued a hurricane warning for western Cuba and the Isle of Youth, where residents are advised to prepare for a potentially deadly storm surge, hurricane-force winds and destructive waves.

Tropical storm force winds are also expected to affect the Lower and Middle Florida Keys later today and tonight, with gusts posing a potential threat.

Although it is still too early to determine Rafael’s impacts on the western Gulf Coast, residents along the coast are encouraged by federal forecasters to stay informed about the storm’s forecast.

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