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Here’s why a presidential winner is unlikely to be declared on election night
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Here’s why a presidential winner is unlikely to be declared on election night

(AP) – Former President Donald Trump is stepping up his demands that the winner of the presidential race be declared shortly after polls close Tuesday, well before all the votes are counted.

Trump set the tone in 2020when he declared he had won early the morning after Election Day. This led his allies to demand that authorities “stop the count!” » He and many other conservatives have spent the past four years falsely claiming that fraud cost him this election and bemoaning the length of time it took to count ballots in the United States.

But one of the many reasons we’re unlikely to quickly know the winner on election night is that Republican lawmakers in two key states have refused to change laws that delay the count. Another reason is that most indications are that this will be a very close election and that it will take longer to determine who won in close elections than in blowout elections.

Ultimately, election experts note, the priority in counting votes is to ensure that it is an accurate and secure count, not to end the suspense moments after the polls close. polling stations.

“There’s nothing nefarious about it,” said Rick Hasen, a law professor at the University of California, Los Angeles. “The delay is intended to protect the integrity of the process.”

Trump’s request also doesn’t appear to take into account the six time zones from the East Coast to Hawaii.

David Becker, elections expert and co-author of “The Big Truth,” debunks The lies of Trump’s 2020 electionsaid it was unrealistic for election officials in thousands of jurisdictions to “instantly snap their fingers and count 160 million multi-page ballots with dozens of races.”

The presidential campaign is coming down to one last push in a handful of states on the eve of Election Day. (Source: CNN)

Trump wants the race to be decided Tuesday night

During a Sunday gathering In Pennsylvania, Trump demanded that the race be decided shortly after some polls began to close.

“They have to be decided Tuesday night at 9 p.m., 10 p.m. and 11 p.m.,” Trump said. “A bunch of crooked people. They are crooked people.

It was not clear who he was targeting with the “crooked people” remark.

The timing is an example of why Trump’s demands don’t match the reality of elections in the United States. At 11 p.m. Eastern time, polls will just close in the two western swing states, Arizona and Nevada.

Trump has led conservatives to lament that the United States does not count elections as quickly as France or Argentina, where recent election results were announced hours after polls closed. But that’s because these countries only count one election at a time. America’s decentralized system prevents the federal government from controlling elections.

Instead, votes are counted in nearly 10,000 separate jurisdictions, each of which has its own elections for the state Legislature, city council, school boards and ballot measures to be tabulated at the same time. This is why the United States is taking longer to count votes.

FILE - Chet Harhut, deputy director of the Allegheny County Elections Division, carries a container of...
FILE – Chet Harhut, deputy director of the Allegheny County Elections Division, carries a container of absentee ballots from a secure area of ​​the election warehouse in Pittsburgh, April 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar, File)(PA)

Declaring a winner can take time

THE Associated Press calls the races when there is no possibility so that the lagging candidate can fill the gap. Sometimes, if a candidate is significantly late, a winner can be called quickly. But if the margin is narrow, then every vote could count. It takes a while for every vote to be counted, even in the country’s most efficient jurisdictions.

In 2018, for example, Republican Rick Scott won the U.S. Senate race in Florida, a state that conservatives regularly praise for its quick count. But the AP did not announce Scott’s victory until after a recount concluded on November 20, because Scott’s margin was so slim.

It also takes time to count each of the millions of votes because election officials must process contested, or “provisional,” ballots and verify whether they were legitimately cast. Ballots from military personnel or other U.S. citizens abroad may arrive at the last minute. Mail-in ballots usually arrive early, but there is a lengthy process to ensure they are not cast fraudulently. If this process does not start before Election Day, it may save the count.

Some states, like Arizona, also give voters whose mail-in ballots were rejected because the signatures didn’t match five days to prove they actually voted. This means that final figures simply cannot be available on Tuesday evening.

Election rules are to blame in some states

Part of this slowness is due to state-specific election rules. In Pennsylvania And Wisconsintwo of the most important swing states, election officials have for years been pleading with Republican lawmakers to change the law that prevents them from processing their mail-in ballots before Election Day. This means mail-in ballots are counted late and often results don’t begin to be released until after Election Day.

Democrats traditionally dominate mail-in voting, making it seem like Republicans are in the lead until the early hours of the next morning, when Democratic mail-in votes are finally added to the tally. Experts have even given names to this phenomenon in past elections: the “red mirage” or the “blue shift”. Trump exploited this dynamic in 2020 when he asked his supporters to demand an abrupt halt to the vote count – the ballots that remained uncounted were largely mail-in ballots intended for Joe Biden . We don’t know exactly how this will happen this year, since the Republicans have changed and voted in large numbers during early voting.

Michigan once had similar restrictions, but after Democrats took control of the state Legislature in 2022, they lifted the ban on early processing of mail-in ballots. The state’s Democratic secretary of state, Jocelyn Benson, said she hoped to have most of the results available by Wednesday.

“Ultimately, it is the chief election officials who have the ability to deliver accurate results. Americans should focus on what they say, not what a specific candidate or people on the campaign say,” said Jen Easterly, director of the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency.

Former President Donald Trump said Sunday he believes he “shouldn’t have left” the White House after losing the 2020 election. (POOL)

Trump’s allies urge him to declare victory quickly

Some Trump allies say this time around he should be even more aggressive in declaring victory.

Longtime Trump ally Steve Bannon, who predicted in 2020 that the then-president would declare victory before the race was called, argued for a similar strategy during a recent press conference after his release from federal prison, where he was serving a sentence for contempt of Congress conviction related to the investigation into Trump’s efforts to overturn his 2020 defeat.

“President Trump came in at 2:30 in the morning and spoke,” Bannon said. “He should have done it at 11 a.m. in 2020.”

Other Trump supporters took a more somber tone. His former national security adviser, Michael Flynn, suggested during a recent interview on the right-wing podcast American Truth Project that violence could erupt in states that are still counting ballots the day after Election Day because people “just aren’t going to stand for it.” »

Trying to project a sense of inevitability about a Trump victory, the former president and his supporters have touted early voting data and favorable polls to argue that the election is all but over. Republicans have returned to voting early after largely following Trump’s leadership in 2020 and 2022. In some swing states that track party registration, registered Republicans outnumber Democrats in early voting.

But that doesn’t mean Republicans are significantly ahead. Early voting data doesn’t tell you who will win an election, because it only records who voted, not how they voted.

Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign explicitly targeted Republicans disillusioned with Trump. In each of the states where a greater number of Republicans voted, there are also a very large number of early voting voters who are not registered with either major political party. If Harris won just a tiny fraction more votes than Trump, it would erase the small lead Republicans have.

There is only one way to find out who won the presidential election: wait until enough votes are counted, when the time comes.