Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd (Adani Ports) is today expected to announce its results for the quarter and six months ending September 30, 2024, i.e. Tuesday, October 29. (on an annual basis), but the quarterly figures (QoQ) could remain modest.

Analysts tracking the stock said sequential performance could be affected due to growing geopolitical concerns, while the company is poised to deliver double-digit year-over-year gains on strong volume growth. However, Ebitda margins could see a decline of up to 600 basis points (bps) on a quarterly basis.

Kotak Institutional Equities sees Adani Ports generating revenue of Rs 7,311.1 crore, up 10% YoY but down 3% QoQ. Ebitda could stand at Rs 4,277 crore, up 10% year-on-year but down 12% sequentially, with Ebitda margins contracting 563 basis points to 58.5%. Net profit is estimated at Rs 2,543.5 crore, up 16% year-on-year but down 21% quarter-on-quarter.

“We are modeling a 10% improvement in revenue versus the prior year, driven by a combination of organic volume growth and increased fulfillment/mix effect. The impact of the loss of Mundra volumes (bad weather in August) was 2% on volume. We model Ebitda. margin of 59 percent in 2QFY25 similar to 2QFY24 levels,” Kotak added. The stock is rated “buy”.

Motilal Oswal Financial Services expects its revenue to grow 10 per cent year-on-year to Rs 7,330 crore, driven by 10 per cent year-on-year growth in port volumes and by 13 percent compared to the previous year in the logistics sector. It also expects adjusted PAT to stand at Rs 2,560 crore, up 15% YoY, with Ebitda of Rs 4,320 crore, driven by an improvement in Ebitda margin of 60 basis points over one year.

“Improved utilization of existing and recently acquired ports and growth in the logistics sector remain the key things to watch out for,” Motilal who currently has a buy rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 1,880.

Shares of Adani Ports were trading flat at Rs 1,352.45 on Tuesday, with its total market capitalization close to Rs 2.92 lakh crore. The stock had settled at Rs 1,353.20 in the previous trading session on Monday.

Nuvama Institutional Equities pegs Adani Ports’ revenue at Rs 7,016.4 crore, up 6% year-on-year but down 7% quarter-on-quarter. Ebitda is estimated at Rs 4,278.9 crore, up 17% YoY but down 11% QoQ. Net profit is estimated at Rs 2,528.8 crore, up 19 per cent year-on-year and slightly up 2 per cent sequentially.

“We expect consolidated revenue growth of 6 percent year-on-year, driven by volume growth of 8.5 percent, partially offset by lower Haifa Port revenue and SEZ revenue “Lower volume and margins at Gangavaram will impact consolidated performance, expect Indian port margins to be 71.3 percent,” added Nuvama.

Equirus Securities forecasts the total volume handled at Adani ports in Q2FY25 to be 111 million tonnes, up 9.8% year-on-year and 1.7% year-on-year. a quarter. “We expect operating margins to be between 59 and 60 percent given the revenue mix,” he said, adding that global trade and international port performance were the drivers. keys to monitor.

Consolidated revenue of Adani Ports & SEZ is expected to improve by 5.6 per cent YoY with consolidated Ebitda margin of 60.6 per cent, Elara Capital said. Second quarter volume increased 9% year-on-year to 111 million tonnes. Growth was lower due to hampered operations at Mundra port due to weather conditions, leading to a volume loss of 2.0 million tonnes, it said. port revenues are expected to grow 12 percent year-on-year with a port EBITDA margin of 71 percent.