PHILADELPHIA (WPVI) — It’s a disappointing trend for snow lovers: below-average snowfall in five of the last six winters, with two years without even getting an inch.

Winter cold has also led to a demise, with temperatures above average in nine of the last ten winters. Four of them ranked among the 10 hottest on record.

So, will this year be different? Will winter lovers finally be buried under the snow? For this answer, we head to the oceans. Indeed, oceans cover 71% of the Earth’s surface and determine weather conditions across the world.

Water temperatures in the Atlantic are still above average. This creates high pressure off the southeast coast, which pushes warmer air into our region.

Meanwhile, water temperatures in parts of the Pacific are below average, causing what is known as a strongly negative PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation). This tends to create a cool trough in the jet stream for the western United States and a ridge of warmer air to the east.

At the same time, slightly below-average ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are expected to create a weak La Niña as winter approaches.

What does the weak La Niña mean for us?

La Niña – which generally doesn’t favor cold, snowy winters here at home. Eighty percent of weak La Niña events since 1959 have produced below-average snowfall. Some were significantly lower just two years ago.

The typical La Niña pattern brings the north polar jet out of the northwest Pacific, then dips into the northern Plains before rising toward northern New England. This leads to a weaker storm track that favors systems passing through our northwest, keeping us on the mild side, with the best chances for snow across the Great Lakes and northern New England.

Climate change has been a major factor in recent times

Winters are the fastest warming season in the United States. Here in Philadelphia, average winter temperatures have increased nearly six degrees since 1970.

Putting it all together. Here are the key points for the coming winter.

Just like last year, we don’t expect any real long cold spells, just a few brief shots. So, overall, temperatures look pretty mild, with more rain or mixed precipitation rather than typical snowstorms. This will give us another winter with below average snowfall.

Snow forecast

Lehigh Valley: approximately 22 to 28 inches
Philadelphia: approximately 14 to 20 inches
Jersey Shore along the coast: 9 to 15 inches

Even though we’re expecting another, shall we say, lackluster season for snow lovers, that doesn’t mean you won’t need your winter coat of scrapers and shovels from time to time.