Tropical Storm Rafael formed Monday afternoon in the Caribbean and is expected to briefly become a Category 2 hurricane later this week over Cuba, according to the National Hurricane Center. It is then expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico, staying west of the Florida Gulf Coast.

As of 4 p.m., Tropical Storm Rafael was 175 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, and 395 miles southeast of Grand Cayman. It has sustained winds of 45 mph and is moving north at 9 mph.

Tropical storm watches have been issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys, including Key West, Channel 5 Bridge and Dry Tortugas.

Tropical Storm Rafael is expected to move near Jamaica Monday evening, near or over the Cayman Islands Tuesday evening, and approach Cuba Wednesday, the NHC said.

It is expected to quickly strengthen into a hurricane on Tuesday, the NHC said.

Is Tropical Storm Rafael expected to hit Florida?

Rafael is expected to remain more than 250 miles west of Florida’s Gulf Coast, meaning no direct impact on central Florida is expected, although it will bring rain to the region mid-week.

Current forecasts call for minimal impacts, mainly showers Wednesday and Thursday with an outside risk of an isolated tornado. Wind gusts could reach 25 to 35 mph.

When does hurricane season end?

Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, 2024.

So far this year we have had 17 named storms.

Of those 17, there were six tropical storms and 10 hurricanes. There have been three hurricanes that made landfall in Florida: Debby, Helene and Milton.