Ballots are still being counted in California, but it’s already clear that voter turnout statewide this election cycle is poised to be lackluster.

And it may be part of a broader trend seen across the country, especially in Democratic strongholds.

The California Secretary of State estimates that approximately 16 million Californians voted in this year’s elections, a turnout rate of 69.3%, as of Wednesday morning, November 20.

If so, “this would mark a significant drop in participation.” according to the Public Policy Institute of California“about 1.7 million fewer ballots than in 2020, despite 550,000 more registered voters and 1.8 million more eligible residents.”

Jaden Bates votes at Lake Forest Sports Park in Lake Forest, Calif., Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024. (Photo by Paul Bersebach, Orange County Register/SCNG)

Workers process and count Election Day ballot mail at the Los Angeles County Ballot Processing Center in the City of Industry, Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024. (Photo by Keith Birmingham, Orange County Register/SCNG)

A woman walks her back as she votes at a ballot box outside the Rose Bowl on November 5, 2024. (Photo by Dean Musgrove, Los Angeles Daily News/SCNG)

Voters wait as the line wraps around the exterior of the Corona Public Library in Corona on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024. (Photo by Anjali Sharif-Paul, The Sun/SCNG )

People watch on monitors as workers process ballots at the Orange County Registrar of Voters in Santa Ana, Calif., Tuesday, Nov. 12, 2024. A camera above each workstation allows the public to see what the ballot processor sees. (Photo by Paul Bersebach, Orange County Register/SCNG)

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Jaden Bates votes at Lake Forest Sports Park in Lake Forest, Calif., Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024. (Photo by Paul Bersebach, Orange County Register/SCNG)

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California makes voting incredibly easy, especially compared to other states. All registered voters receive a ballot in the mail and residents can return it by mail, to their polling place or, in some counties, to a drop box or voting center, which opens one month before the day of voting. ballot. Voters can also complete their ballots in person at their respective polling stations or voting centers.

However, the state also it is easier for people to register to vote. Eligible residents can automatically register when they obtain or renew their driver’s license.

“California has dramatically increased the number of registered voters in recent years,” said Dan Schnur, who teaches political messaging at USC. “But people are automatically registered to vote, and when they don’t vote, it should be no surprise that the percentage of voters goes down.”

“The state has passed laws to register a lot more people, but we still have to figure out how to get those people to vote,” Schnur said.

California launched its Motor Voter program — considered the state’s best method for registering new voters or updating existing registrations — in 2018.

At the beginning of January 2016, there were more than 17.2 million registered voters out of nearly 24.6 million eligible voters, or 70.2%, according to the Secretary of State.

In October 2019, around 20.32 million people were registered to vote, out of 25.2 million eligible, or 80.65%.

Before this year’s elections, as of October 21, 2024, nearly 22.6 million people were registered to vote, out of 26.9 million (83.96%). according to the Secretary of State.

Nationally, it appears that while traditional Republican strongholds generated even more voters for President-elect Donald Trump, the counties with the biggest Democratic victories in 2020 received fewer votes for the vice president Kamala Harris, a recent New York Times analysis found. These left-leaning counties received 1.9 million fewer votes for Harris than for President Joe Biden in 2020, while red counties added 1.2 million more votes for Trump compared to the last cycle, according to the analysis.

Schnur said he’s seeing this trend — traditional Democratic districts aren’t as strong this cycle — across the country and in California.

“Kamala Harris has many skills as a politician, but she is an extremely cautious person,” he said. “It’s entirely possible that this caution prevented more Democrats from being motivated to participate.”

Biden received more than 11.1 million votes in 2020 in California, or 63.5%.

As of Wednesday morning, Harris had received about 9 million votes, or 58.7 percent. The secretary of state estimates there are about 570,000 ballots remaining to be processed and another 126,000 to be corrected, the process allowing voters to correct a minor error, such as a missing or inconsistent signature on their ballot. (Votes cannot be changed while ballots are being processed.)

How Voter Turnout Translates into Close Races

Statewide voter turnout “feels like a non-presidential (election) year,” said Marcia Godwin, who teaches political science at the University of La Verne.

“Many Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents simply did not vote,” Godwin said. “The effect is most pronounced in San Bernardino County, where turnout is lower than the state average. Riverside County’s turnout rate is closer to the state average, but the electorate was still more Republican than you would normally expect in a presidential year.

And while it’s still early to tell the full picture, it’s clear that turnout may impact some of the tight, yet-to-be-announced races in Southern California.

Take for example the race for the State Senate District 35 seat, which represents parts of the South Bay and southern Los Angeles County, where two candidates with prior political experience faced off in a contest to replace the outgoing senator Steven Bradford.

The latest vote counts show Laura Richardson ahead of Michelle Chambers by 2,708 votes (just over 1 percentage point). So far, 241,934 votes have been counted in this race. He’s on pace to have lower turnout than four years ago, when 323,961 people voted in that race, and Bradford was re-elected with a landslide victory.

Joel Fox, an assistant professor at Pepperdine University who follows county government and local elections, said this year’s race pitted two Democrats, which could have made voters less motivated to participate if they felt the candidates were similar and that it mattered less which choice they voted for. .

Or, if voters weren’t sure of the difference between the two candidates, some might have opted out of this race, Fox said.

“They’re both Democrats, so their policies are probably similar,” Fox said. “Voters are probably thinking, ‘Well, I can live with either one.'”

And then there was the race for California’s 41st congressional seat, where Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Corona, was declared winner more than a week after election day. Low voter turnout, among other things, contributed to Calvert’s re-election, Godwin said.

According to the latest data from the Secretary of State as of Wednesday morning, 65.7% of registered voters in Los Angeles County participated in the election. In 2020, this figure was 74.63%; in 2016, it was 67.46%; and in 2012 it was 68.02%.

Over the past five presidential election cycles, LA County had the highest turnout in 2008, when 78.36% of registered voters cast ballots.

Orange County has had higher turnout than its neighboring counties in the last five presidential elections. The county is on track to continue this trend, although voter turnout remains lower than in years past.

So far, 74.6% of registered voters participated in this year’s elections, compared to 87.24% in 2020, 80.71% in 2016, 67.33% in 2012 and 72.62% in 2008.

In Riverside County, 67.3% of registered voters cast ballots this year, 81.91% in 2020, 75.48% in 2016, 70.98% in 2012 and 78.46% in 2008.

In San Bernardino County, 62.1% of registered voters participated in this year’s elections, 77.32% in 2020, 75.77% in 2016, 69.24% in 2012 and 74.28% in 2008.