TAMPA, Fla. — Potential Topical Cyclone Eighteen has formed in the Caribbean and is moving northeast at nearly 7 mph. It is expected to turn north then northwest over the next few days.

But what does this mean for the Tampa Bay area?

ABC Action News Chief Meteorologist Denis Phillips said, “The trajectory of the NHC is good news for the Peninsula. A trajectory this far west does not mean that we will not see some impacts, but these impacts would be weaker the further west we move. The chances of rain increasing are a given. There could be some coastal push, but the further west you go, the lower this risk will be.

Here are Denis Phillips’ thoughts from Sunday evening:

1. PTC will become Rafael and will settle in the Gulf. For now, the NHC is pointing west. Yes, this could still change. Regardless, I put up my Christmas decorations for a reason. I don’t expect a big impact on our region. Definitely rain mid-week.
2. I don’t expect the yellow area to bother anyone. In fact, I think he is “eaten” by what will become Rafael. That’s why I didn’t talk about it. It’s not a factor.
3. PTC 18 is forecast to become a hurricane and tropical storm watches will likely be issued for the Keys later tonight.
4. At this point, if the NHC trail holds true, I doubt we’ll see any reviews here. It’s early, things can (and often do) change. So keep it here. We will be updating (as always) 24/7.
5. Rule #7. No need to panic even when Rafael turns into a hurricane in the Caribbean. Lots of shear, dry air and colder waters should knock it down considerably once it reaches the Gulf.

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