Three Hendrick Motorsports drivers are racing for the final two spots in the NASCAR Cup Series Championship 4 and this weekend’s showdown at Martinsville Speedway is the end of championship dreams. For William Byron, seven points above the cutoff, and Kyle Larson, seven points below the cutoff, getting into the Championship 4 is possible on points but for Chase Elliott, 43 points below, it’s probably a win and you are in the situation.

“I try not to think too much about the situation.” Elliott said. “To be frank, we’ve been to this place before, so it’s not like this is the first time I’ve experienced this or had to experience this. Having done this before and been to this place, I think that it gives you feel a little sense of peace and you just know how to deal with it and know that your team can achieve it.

Elliott, of course, is speaking from experience after winning Martinsville in 2020 to qualify for the Championship 4 and then winning the title at Phoenix Raceway that season. The 2020 Cup Series champion is the only driver to finish in the Top 10 in all six short track races this season and he has one career victory at Martinsville, with six Top 5s and 11 Top 10s in 18 starts. He also has the fifth-best average (12.67) at Martinsville Speedway among active Cup drivers with at least two starts. Long story short, Elliott knows how to run at Paperclip.

Kyle Larson’s position is much more advantageous than that of his teammate Elliott, with Larson being seven points below the cut line to make the Championship 4 on the Phoenix circuit.

“We have one win and a couple second places, I think, at Martinsville since I joined Hendrick Motorsports,” Larson said. “It hasn’t always been a good track for me, but I think Hendrick Motorsports has a great package for the track and that has definitely helped me. Hopefully we can challenge for stage wins and Sunday’s victory.”

In 19 career races at Martinsville, Larson has one win, five Top 5s and seven Top 10s with a career average of 16.7. With just seven points to make up and qualify for Championship 4, Larson can get there with points, but he will need help from Christopher Bell or his teammate, William Byron, to advance to the final round.

William Byron, meanwhile, occupies the catbird seat among Hendrick Motorsports drivers and enjoys a seven-point cushion above the cutoff line. Byron has two career Cup Series wins at Martinsville, including one this season, five Top 5 finishes and seven Top overall finishes.

“This is an area where I know everyone at Hendrick Motorsports puts a lot of emphasis on competitiveness,” Byron said. “I know last fall wasn’t what we wanted and I hope when we go back this fall we’ll be really competitive. We know what the mission of the weekend is and it’s our job to execute it and make it happen.”

There are many permutations on what could happen to Hendrick Motorsports after Martinsville, with the possibility of zero or two Hendrick cars advancing to the Championship 4 at Phoenix Raceway on November 10. And that’s the beauty of racing; you never know what’s going to happen until the flag falls.