AFP examines the options now available to the Liberal Democratic Party (PLD) after its worst result since 2009, and the prospects of its battered leader Ishiba, who only took office on October 1.

Why this big loss?

Fiercely critical of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his established policies, Ishiba has long played on his relative popularity with voters as an “intra-party enemy” of the LDP.

But even though it won him the party leadership, during the election citizens were more interested in punishing the LDP for a scandal that saw party members pocketing fundraisers’ money.

It also didn’t help that the main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), recently elected moderately conservative former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda as its leader.

In office briefly between 2011 and 2012, and known for his “realistic” positions, “I think the majority of Japanese trust Noda,” said Masato Kamikubo, professor of politics at Ritsumeikan University.

“He is a very stable politician,” Kamikubo said.

While the LDP’s number of seats, according to projections by public broadcaster NHK, fell to 191, compared to 259 in the last elections, that of the CDP increased from 96 to 148.

LDP coalition partner Komeito fell from 32 to 24, with new party leader Keiichi Ishii losing his seat.

Could the opposition form a government?

This proves tricky given the fragmented opposition and memories of his tumultuous rule between 2009 and 2012, analysts say.

“The possibility of a transfer of power to the opposition is not zero, but there are far too many opposition parties for any one of them to reach the majority,” said Yu Uchiyama, professor of political science at the University of Tokyo.

Political differences and past feuds continue to divide and hamper opposition parties, from the Communists to the liberal CDP, the centrist Democratic People’s Party (DPP) and the “conservative” Japan Innovation Party. reformist.”

Can Ishiba find new partners?

The Prime Minister has his work cut out for him to achieve this.

During the election campaign, CDP leader Noda said it would be “impossible” to join forces with the LDP, after participating in previous no-confidence votes.

The Japanese Innovation Party is also not convinced, its leader Nobuyuki Baba describing a rapprochement with the LDP in its current scandal-ridden state as “impossible”.

The centrist DPP also denied plans to join the coalition.

But its leader, Yuichiro Tamaki, has left open the possibility of a “partial coalition” where he could offer some flexibility on individual policies with which he has affinity.

What about Ishiba’s future?

Ishiba will therefore likely have to resort to leading a minority administration, seeking support from other parties on a case-by-case basis.

But it risks destabilizing Ishiba’s burgeoning power base and leaving him vulnerable to challenges within his own party.

Speculation is growing that Ishiba may be forced to resign to take responsibility for the debacle, becoming the shortest-serving prime minister in Japan’s post-war history.

In a nuanced denial of this prospect, Ishiba responded in the affirmative on Sunday evening when asked by a journalist whether the prime minister intended to carry out his duties.

“If the ruling coalition, or even just the LDP, loses its majority, Ishiba will face severe criticism from party members,” Yosuke Sunahara of Kobe University told AFP before Sunday .

But at the same time, the loss of the majority in the Lower House by the ruling coalition only exposes public opinion’s disenchantment with the political financing scandal.

So, if “Ishiba is ousted while the party tries to gloss over the issue, public backlash against the LDP will intensify,” Sunahara said.

“This makes it difficult for Ishiba’s rivals within the party to criticize him.”