Donald Trump says he will negotiate an end to the war between Russia and Ukraine “on day one” of his presidency, in January next year.

The new leader of the free world is known for his tough talk and uncompromising approach. He is likely to demand urgent peace talks upon his return to the White House, but implementing an immediate ceasefire will pose an immense challenge.

Still, President Trump is determined to make a deal and I think he might be our best hope for avoiding World War III.

The last four years have been catastrophic for global stability. As American influence declined under Joe Biden’s sclerotic administration, we saw a succession of threats emerge in response to American weakness.

In Afghanistan, the chaotic and hasty withdrawal of allied forces allowed the Taliban to return in force, despite all the promises made by Western leaders. Biden’s lack of leadership in this area has proven to be a complete humiliation for the United States.

This sent a clear signal to the communists in Beijing that they could expand aggressively, without facing American opposition. The message was heard even more clearly in Moscow, where Vladimir Putin calculated that if Russia invaded Ukraine, America might protest but there would be no full-scale war with NATO. It is highly unlikely that Russia would have dared to march on kyiv in 2022 if Trump had been in power.

Of course, Putin was not counting on the fierceness of the Ukrainian resistance, nor on how Britain, under the leadership of Boris Johnson, would rally European opposition to Putin’s so-called “special operation.” But the Kremlin dictator was right to assess Biden’s lack of resolve.

In Tehran, the ayatollahs also noticed this. Iran’s military buildup, using proxy armies in Lebanon, the Gaza Strip and Yemen, has been egregious, as has its quest for nuclear weapons.

Donald Trump is known for his tough talk and uncompromising approach. He is determined to get a deal done and I believe he could be our best hope of avoiding a Third World War, writes NILE GARDINER.

As American influence declined under Joe Biden’s sclerotic administration, we saw a succession of threats emerge in response to American weakness.

All eyes are currently on Putin and his desire to use nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).

But an even greater imminent danger of all-out nuclear war will threaten the world if Ali Khamenei and his mullahs succeed in building an atomic device with a working detonator. Their fanaticism is such that it is not unlikely that they are ready to use it against Israel.

Trump understands all of this, and he recognizes that the United States is the only superpower on Earth with the power to prevent it. He would not have allowed Iran to become the international tyrannical state it is today, just as he struck North Korea when Kim Jong-Un (the man Trump called “little rocket man”) began testing missiles towards America. .

It is also unlikely that Hamas would have organized the sickening atrocities of October 7 last year if Biden had not been in power. Gaza terrorists took advantage of American weakness, with horrible consequences for all.

This combination of catastrophes has left the planet on the brink of an all-consuming conflagration. Currently, Biden’s extremely risky decision to authorize the firing of US-made long-range weapons at Russia by Ukrainian defenders has been met with a new wave of Russian aggression.

These ATACM (pronounced “Attack-em”) missiles were used on targets far behind Russian lines. But they failed to deliver a decisive blow.

And the immediate result was to give Putin exactly the excuse he wanted to test his own long-range missiles, the Rubezh hypersonic weapon.

One of them exploded over the city of Dnipro last Thursday, fired from the remote Russian region of Astrakhan, more than 650 kilometers away and traveling that distance in just 10 minutes, according to the agency Reuters press release.

Biden’s extremely risky decision to authorize the firing of US-made long-range weapons at Russia by Ukraine’s defenders was met with a new wave of Russian aggression – and provided Vladimir Putin with the the excuse why he wanted to test his own long-range weapons. remote missiles

This time the payload consisted of conventional high explosives. But the Rubezh is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead more than 2,000 miles. Fired from this side of the Urals, it could hit London, Berlin or Paris in a matter of minutes. The result would be annihilation and millions of deaths – as well as some NATO nuclear retaliation.

Putin could also become emboldened by attacking Ukraine’s military supply chain, for example by hitting a depot across the Polish border with a ballistic missile. If this happened, what would NATO’s reaction be?

One thing is certain: the current leadership vacuum in Washington under the Biden administration would procrastinate and put us all at risk.

It’s hard to imagine what benefit Biden saw in using ATACM missiles this late in the day. They are unlikely to change the situation and have undoubtedly created a more dangerous situation for Trump to inherit.

The truth is that throughout the war in Ukraine, we have seen little real strategic thinking from Biden and his advisers. This is a clumsy and clueless administration.

Putin knows this and is strengthened by it. He sees Trump as a much more effective and powerful opponent, particularly now that the outgoing president has a clear mandate from voters – with majorities in the Senate and House, and all serious threats of legal action against him risk evaporating.

Trump’s first step toward peace may well be the reimposition of restrictions on the use of U.S. weapons beyond Ukraine’s borders. Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky is well aware of this and will likely adjust his own battle plans accordingly.

A decision by the United States to withdraw authorization to use ATACMs does not automatically mean that Britain and France will follow suit and suspend the use of Storm Shadow missiles. But pressure will be put on the UK and its European allies to support the US strategy.

Ukrainian servicemen carry out military exercises on a training ground. As tragic as it may seem, Ukraine faces a very daunting task: regaining all the territory it has lost to Russia since 2014.

It is essential for future peace that Putin cannot be allowed to annex more of Ukraine, and Trump is all too aware of how the Kursk region of Russia, where kyiv has made an incursion important, can be used by Zelensky as a bargaining chip in any conflict. peace agreement.

But it is also essential that the war does not drag on. As tragic as it may seem, Ukraine faces a very daunting task: reconquering all the territory it has lost to Russia since 2014 – even President Zelensky admits that occupied Crimea cannot be reconquered by the force of arms.

And the longer the war drags on, the more it intensifies, endangering the world, pushing Europe ever closer to global conflict, and absorbing American resources desperately needed in other theaters like the Middle East. East and the Pacific, where we are faced with an ever more belligerent China.

Putin respects no one, but he recognizes the difference between strength and weakness. Trump too – and he will be aware that the best way to weaken Putin will be to restore peace. This could be painful for Ukraine in the short term, but it would leave Moscow with a long-term problem.

The Russian economy is now entirely dependent on the war. If the fighting stops, weapons production will also stop, leading to massive unemployment and a recession. Putin’s best hope for restoring financial stability will be for the West to increase sanctions.

This leaves Trump with all the power. Instead of lifting sanctions, he could threaten to impose even more. The West has complete freedom to tighten its grip on Moscow.

Many European leaders oppose Trump ideologically, but there is no doubt that he knows how to make a deal to his and America’s advantage, which will ultimately benefit the entire planet.

– Nile Gardiner is a former aide to Margaret Thatcher