JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — Is Kamala Harris failing to make a connection in two battleground southeast states she must win if she wants President Biden’s job?

That’s the argument made by Donald Trump’s campaign, which cites dismal data for the Democratic cause in Georgia and North Carolina as evidence that a campaign that began on the theme of joy is culminating in the stench of the division.

Core data consultant Tim Saler says “the biggest and most important day of turnout for the Harris campaign in early voting in North Carolina and Georgia passed with minimal impact on the electorate”.

For those unfamiliar with politics in the South, Saler is referring to “souls to the polls” efforts — mobilizations of black voters who have generally been Democratic for 60 years.

This time around, there are cracks in the coalition, and they threaten the Harris slate in its quest for 16 electoral votes each in North Carolina and Georgia.

In the Tar Heel State, Saler says, “Republicans maintain a lead of about 1 point in the combined number of absentee and early votes,” which contrasts sharply with the 10-point Democratic lead last time presidential cycle and 8 points during the last presidential cycle. 2022 midterm elections.

Given that the last Democrat to win North Carolina was Barack Obama in 2008, these trends bode ill for the California Democrat.

“Republicans took the lead last week for the first time in North Carolina early voting history and continue to hold that lead to this day,” Saler said.

More than 2.82 million North Carolinians have voted through Sunday, or 36% of eligible voters, according to the State Board of Elections. Of those votes, 2.666 million were cast in person.

Republicans voted 961,871 times, which equates to a turnout of 41.25%. The Democrats’ 938,167 votes represent only 38.4% of their party.

The Peach State also offers pits in Harris, Saler says.

“In Georgia, voter turnout last Sunday was 15 percent lower than the first Sunday of early voting, a worrying sign for Harris’ efforts on the ground. Additionally, public polls indicate that Harris continues to struggle with African-American voters, while President Trump is poised to shatter decades-old records for his share of their support.

Trump is particularly strong with black men in some polls, with more than 20% support – a rare trend outside of the former president’s political inner circle planned this year.

Turnout is robust, even with Democratic attrition over the weekend, once again suggesting that Republicans are exceeding expectations.

Georgia’s Secretary of State announced Monday that 40% of eligible people (2,916,979) have already voted. To put that into perspective, never before have even 2 million ballots been cast at equivalent times in previous cycles.

But the increase in voting volume dilutes the share of black voters, Saler says.

“After Sunday’s vote, African American voters in Georgia currently represent only 26 percent of the absentee and early votes cast in Georgia. At this point in 2020, they represented 29 percent of the vote, and at this point in 2022, they represented 30 percent.

RealClearPolling shows Trump up 0.8 points in the average survey in North Carolina and 2.3 in Georgia. Early data from election administrators suggests that Harris’ disappearance seen in recent polls continues at a time when the party can least afford it to happen.