It is, without exaggeration, the dawn of a new era in Paris this evening. For the first time since 2003, there will be a Ballon d’Or without either Lionel Messi neither Cristiano Ronaldo among the shortlisted nominees. A first-time winner of football’s most coveted individual prize is guaranteed.

Father Time has decreed that it is the next generation’s turn and a glitzy ceremony at the Théâtre du Châtelet in the French capital will finally see the new football royalty anointed.

Vinicius Junior is the big favorite after his dazzling 2023-24 season at Real Madrid. Bernabeu fans chanted “Ballon d’Or, Vinicius Ballon d’Or” on repeat after the 24-year-old scored a hat-trick in a 5-2 win against Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League last week, a repeat of June’s final where he also found the net in a 2-0 victory.

Real Madrid coach Carlo Ancelotti needed no further convincing. “In my opinion, Vinicius Jr will win the Ballon d’Or,” he told reporters following last week’s treble. “He will receive the prize.”

That’s the expectation of most observers, but its competitors have their own claims. Rodrithe marginal midfielder of Manchester Cityled Spain towards glory at Euro 2024 and Jude Bellingham‘s decorated debut campaign with Real Madrid was also praised around the world.

This means we will almost certainly have a Ballon d’Or winner in his 20s for the first time since 2015. Closing the book on Messi and Ronaldo provides the opportunity for a new character to be elevated to the most elite level. The world of football will be on the lookout, as will those eager to attach themselves to the next greats.

“Commercially, it’s going to be something of a statement,” says Owen Laverty, director of innovation at Ear to the Ground, a leading sports and entertainment marketing agency based in Manchester.

“The 2026 World Cup (in the USA, Canada and Mexico) is going to be big from a commercial point of view and all the briefs we receive as an agency are asking which horses they should support . This is the first indicator of this, a change from the previous age.

Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo at the Ballon d’Or gala in 2015 (Philipp Schmidli/Getty Images)

Winning the Ballon d’Or brings no direct financial reward (no prize money is on offer), but it does serve as an emphatic endorsement, a surefire way to take their image to the next level. This inevitably leads to better sponsorship deals and an increased level of interest.

Tonight’s winner will, in all likelihood, be assured of a long-agreed-upon windfall. Boot deals for top-tier players usually feature a clause that activates if they win the Ballon d’Or, a mutually beneficial arrangement that acts as a toast to success. Memorabilia arrangements, too, will suddenly be more valuable if they are signed by the world’s best player.

“Most players will have a clause in their football contract that if they win the Ballon d’Or, they will get a big bonus,” says Ehsen Shah, managing director of B-Engaged, an international sports marketing agency .

“This will be the only commercial deal where winning the Ballon d’Or categorically gets you that, but you get other sponsorship deals where your value increases.

“The companies that recruit you will pay more for you because you are considered the best player in the world. Everyone wants shoes or jerseys signed by the best player in the world.

“Those are the only two directly impacted and everyone else is subjective as to whether a brand will go with that person or not because of what they’ve accomplished.

“There is no chronological way of saying that Pepsi, for example, will only support the winner of the Ballon d’Or. You can try to demand more from the market, but you can only charge what brands are willing to pay. Is anyone that influenced by the Ballon d’Or? It’s subjective.

And largely unpublished. Only Luka Modric (2018) and Karim Benzema (2022) have broken the Messi and Ronaldo duopoly since the latter won the first of his five awards as best player. Manchester United player in 2008. Vinicius Jr, already a poster boy for Nike, is ready to be the next test case.

“The big unknown we’re talking about is the commercial impact of winning,” explains Laverty. “We think it makes a difference, but it hasn’t been tested yet.

“In the last 15 years we have only had two players who were neither Messi nor Ronaldo. Benzema won it but was unable to participate in the 2022 World Cup and went to Saudi Arabia. There was a surge of commercial interest in it, but it dissipated so quickly that it is difficult to prove by this theory.

“Where the commercial impact is obvious is the Ballon d’Or Féminin (the women’s prize). People don’t know the players either and they almost need to know who is the best.

“It was a very useful tool in the world of marketing and brands because it was a shortcut. From the outset, Aitana Bonmati (last year’s winner) became a name people wanted to get involved with.”

Bonmati won the award last year (Franck Fife/AFP/Getty Images)

The reality is that the best male footballers, like Vinicius Jr, Rodri, Bellingham, Kylian Mbappé, Erling Haaland And Lamine Yamalalready have a deep list of brand partnerships. Getting this far in their careers has attracted several seven-figure contracts. Their faces are already well known.

But the Ballon d’Or can still make the difference.

“If you were working with the Ballon d’Or, you would consider increasing commercial deals by at least 25 to 50 percent,” adds Shah. “You’ll be able to align yourself with this narrative that you’re working with the best and it’s all backed by reward. LeBron James has done it very well over the years (in the NBA). Its partner brands are aligned with this elite, record-breaking GOAT marketing.

The Ballon d’Or became a very different trophy to chase in the era of Messi and Ronaldo. The prize has always been a worthy one, since its first winner in 1956, Englishman Stanley Matthews, at the age of 41, but its importance has grown in an era defined by two relentless individuals.

Messi and Ronaldo won 13 of the 15 Ballons d’Or between 2008 and 2023 and this rivalry has left a lasting impact.

“The cult of personality is stronger than ever,” says sports marketing expert Ged Colleypriest. “The rise of the Ballon d’Or coincides with the age of social media, the constant debate over who is the GOAT. The Ballon d’Or has become a validation of this.

“It’s used to compare individuals and it’s become much more important in the age of social media where we have this need to say who is better than someone else. Whether you agree with the result or not, the Ballon d’Or is now part of the conversation.

“We have now reached the post-Messi and Ronaldo era and that is causing a bit of intrigue with the new pretenders to the throne.”

Messi and Ronaldo have undeniably given importance to the Ballon d’Or. Or at least, more than before.

Mbappe has spoken openly about his ambition to win the grand prize and some major transfers, such as Anthony Martial’s move to Manchester United from Monaco in 2015, include a top-up clause if the player wins a Ballon d’Or.

The title itself, which means “golden ball”, has entered the language of football. Experts speak of an intangible and mythical level of the Ballon d’Or, sparking debate around a player’s abilities. TNT’s Rio Ferdinand simply chose to repeat the award’s name nine times as Vinicius Jr scored in the Champions League final at Wembley in a 30-second clip that would later go viral.

Everyone is watching this performance from Vinicius Jnr… pic.twitter.com/Gsy4t4SbY2

– Football on TNT Sports (@footballontnt) October 22, 2024

It’s hard to imagine anyone having the same immediate thought Zinedine Zidane while he won the 1998 World Cup with Francebut football is increasingly focused on the individual.

“If we were having a conversation even 20 years ago and we were talking about the greatest players of all time, we would list how many titles they won,” says Laverty.

“I’m not sure that at any time we would have said: ‘And he has three Ballon d’Ors and he only has one’. It’s always been an NBA, NFL language. You’d say a player has X titles, X MVPs, then stack them. This is becoming more and more common in football with the Ballon d’Or.

“All the research we’ve done shows that this will continue to evolve towards the NFL/NBA model, where personal stats and accolades become really important because they demonstrate that person’s success. The Ballon d’Or matters to young fans .

Change matters too. A new MVP in American sports can see his commercial power strengthened overnight and these awards traditionally count for much more than a Ballon d’Or. The subtle change in football, where players can be followed as much as teams by younger fans, means individual honors bring greater validation. And while the Ballon d’Or is of increased importance to young fans, it is also important to brands considering key partnerships.

“When you get the NBA MVP, the way brands perceive you completely changes,” says Shah. “In NBA culture, the broadcast is on and every commercial break there is an NBA player. We don’t necessarily have this culture in Europe.

“The market has evolved now. You have Mbappe with a good list of marks, Bellingham with a good list of marks, Vinicius and Yamal. Their business work is already done.

“These brands are all counting on this player to become a Ballon d’Or winner.”

Don’t rule out Messi and Ronaldo, the commercial giants of football, especially without any of them ruling him out one last dance at the 2026 World Cup. Yet the name read out this evening in Paris will give the strongest indication yet of where the line of succession will lead.

GO DEEPER

Who should win the men’s Ballon d’Or: Rodri or Vinicius Junior?

(Top photos: Getty Images; design: Eamonn Dalton)