BANGKOK– Three well-armed militias launched a surprise joint offensive in the northeast Burma a year ago, breaking a strategic standoff with the regime’s military by quickly gaining large swathes of territory and inspiring others to attack across the country.

Military control seemed firmly rooted in vast superiority in troops and firepower, as well as material support from Russia and China. But today the government is falling further and further behind, with the loss of dozens of strategic outposts, bases and towns that even its leaders admitting would be difficult to take back.

“The military is on the defensive across the country, and every time they put their energy into one part of the country, they basically have to move their troops around, which makes them vulnerable in other areas,” said Connor Macdonald , of the Special Advisory Council for Military Affairs. Myanmar Defense Group.

“It does not seem to us that there is a viable path of return for the army to reconquer the territories it has lost.”

The military seized power from Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected government in February 2021, triggering intensified fighting with long-established armed militias organized by Myanmar’s ethnic minority groups in its border regions, which have been fighting since decades for more autonomy.

The military’s takeover also triggered the formation of pro-democracy militias known as the People’s Defense Forces. They support the opposition Government of national unitywhich was created by elected legislators who were unable to serve after the military took power.

But until the launch of Operation 1027, named after its October 27 launch, the military, known as the Tatmadaw, had largely managed to avoid major casualties across the country.

Operation 1027 saw coordinated attacks by three of the most powerful ethnic armed groups, known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance: the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the Arakan Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army. The alliance quickly captured towns and overran military bases and outposts along the Chinese border in northeastern Shan state.

Two weeks later, the The Arakan Army launched attacks in his Western home state, Rakhineand since then other militias and PDFs have joined them throughout the country.

A year after the start of the offensive, the resistance forces now fully or partially control a vast horseshoe-shaped territory. It begins in Rakhine in the west, crosses the north then heads south into Kayah and Kayin states, along the Thai border. The Tatmadaw has retreated to central Myanmar, around the capital Naypyidaw and the largest city Yangon.

“I never thought our goals would be achieved so quickly,” Lway Yay Oo, a spokesperson for the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, told the Associated Press. “We only thought that we would attack the military council together as much as possible, but it was easier than expected and we were able to conquer faster.”

Along the way, the Tatmadaw suffered humiliating defeatsincluding the loss of the town of Laukkai in an assault in which the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army captured more than 2,000 soldiers, including six generals; and of town of Lashio, which housed the North-Eastern military command.

“The 1027 offensive was a very impressive operation, quite complex, and the use of drones played an important role in dismantling the military network of fire support bases in northern Shan,” he said. said Morgan Michaels, a Singapore-based official. analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies who directs its Myanmar conflict map project.

“And then, once military artillery support eroded, they were able to overrun harder targets like towns and battalion headquarters.”

A year later, the army is “considerably weakened,” he said, but it is too soon to forget that.

The Tatmadaw managed to recover the town of Kawlin in the Sagaing region, which fell in the first days of the 1027 offensive, repelled an attack by three Karenni ethnic militias against Loikaw, the capital of Kayah State, and retained administrative control of Myawaddya key border crossing with Thailand, after repelling an attack by an ethnic group with the help of a rival militia.

Many expect the army to launch a counter-offensive at the end of the rainy season, reinforced by some 30,000 new troops since activation of conscription in February and its total air superiority.

But at the same time, resistance groups are closing in on Mandalay, Myanmar’s second largest city, in the center of the country.

And where they might be outgunned, they have gained in hard-won strength, experience and confidence over the past year, said Lway Yay Oo of the Ta’ang National Liberation Army .

“We have military experience on our side and, based on this experience, we can strengthen combat operations,” she said.

Thet Swe, spokesperson for military regimeadmitted that it would be difficult for the Tatmadaw to dislodge the Three Brotherhood Alliance from the territory it conquered.

“We can’t take it back for a year,” he told the AP in an email response to questions. “However, I hope that I will give you a joyful message…in (the) next two or three years.”

As the military faced setbacks in field fighting, it increasingly relied on indiscriminate air and artillery strikes, leading to a 95% increase in civilian deaths due to airstrikes and a 170% increase in the number of civilians killed by artillery since the 1027 offensive began, according to a report released last month by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights .

The Tatmadaw has been accused of deliberately targeting civilians who she says support resistance militias, a tactic that only backfires further, said Isabel Todd, coordinator of the SAC-M group.

“It doesn’t seem to have the effect they want,” she said. “This makes them even more hated by the population and really strengthens the resolve to ensure that this is the end of the Myanmar military as it is known.”

Military spokesman Thet Swe denied targeting civilians, saying militias were responsible for killing civilians and burning villages.

Hundreds of thousands of civilians have been displaced by the fighting, and there are now more than 3 million internally displaced people in total, and some 18.6 million people in need, according to the UN .

At the same time, the humanitarian response plan for 2024 is only one-third funded, hampering the delivery of aid, said Sajjad Mohammad Sajid, head of the UN Office for Humanitarian Affairs operation. coordination of humanitarian affairs in Myanmar.

“THE humanitarian perspectives The next year is dark and we anticipate that the deterioration of the situation will have a considerable impact on the protection of civilians,” he said in an interview.

In some areas, however, the offensive has eased pressure, such as in northwest Chin State, which borders Bangladesh and India and had previously been the center of many Tatmadaw operations, said Salai Htet Ni, spokesperson for the Chin National Front whose armed wing was involved in the fight against the army.

“In October last year, military convoys going up the Chin Mountains were withdrawn,” he said. “Following Operation 1027, there was virtually no major military activity.”

As the front has expanded, militias have advanced out of their own ethnic areas, as when the Rakhine-based Arakan Army seized the Chin region in January. town of Paletwawhich gave rise to some friction between the groups, suggesting possible future conflicts in the event of the fall of the Tatmadaw.

In Paletwa’s case, Salai Htet Ni said his group was happy that the AA had taken it from the Tatmadaw, but added that there should have been negotiations before starting to operate in Chin territory and that the AA should now call on Chin forces to assist. administer the territory.

“Negotiations are obligatory on these regional administration issues,” he said. “But we will negotiate this matter through dialogue and not by military means.”

Currently, there is a degree of solidarity between different ethnic groups focused on a common enemy, but Aung Thu Nyein, communications director at the Institute for Strategy and Policy-Myanmar think tank, said this does not translate into common aspirations.

If the Tatmadaw were to fall, it could lead to the fragmentation of Myanmar unless the groups work hard to resolve political and territorial disputes.

“To my knowledge, there is no established mechanism to resolve the issues,” he said. “It is unlikely that the resistance will be able to overthrow the junta, but I cannot rule out this scenario, (and) if we fail to build trust and common goals, it could lead to the Syria scenario. »

The political situation is complicated by the influence of neighboring China, which reportedly tacitly supported the 1027 offensive in what proved to be a successful attempt to largely shut down the country. organized crime activities which prospered along its border.

In January, Beijing used its close ties with the Tatmadaw and Three Brotherhood groups to broker a ceasefire in northern Shan, which lasted five months until the conflict ended. the ethnic alliance opened phase two of the 1027 offensive in June, accusing the military of violating the ceasefire.

China has been unhappy with the development, closing border crossings, cutting power to Myanmar towns and taking other measures in a so far unsuccessful attempt to end the fighting.

Its support for the regime also appears to be growing, with China’s envoy to Myanmar urging the powerful United Wa state army, which was not involved in the 1027 offensive or related fighting, to actively pressure the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and on Ta’ang. The National Liberation Army must stop the new offensive, according to leaked information from an August meeting widely reported by local media.

However, there is no evidence that the UWSA did this.

“The idea that the Northern groups, the Three Brotherhood Alliance, etc. are somehow just agents of China is a completely false idea,” Todd said.

“They have their own goals that they pursue regardless of what China wants them to do or not, and that is clear from the incredible pressure that China has put on them recently.”

Popular support for the resistance makes it less vulnerable to outside influence, said Kyaw Zaw, spokesperson for the opposition National Unity Government.

“No matter who pressures us, we win through people power,” he said.