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‘Nostradamus’ poll says early returns ‘scary’ for prediction of Harris win
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‘Nostradamus’ poll says early returns ‘scary’ for prediction of Harris win

Historian Allan Lichtman admitted that despite his weeks of support for Kamala Harris to win the presidency, the first feedback from voters was “very frightening”.

During an online broadcast Tuesday evening, Lichtman and his son, Sam Lichtman, provided live updates from the first counts showed gains for Donald Trumpadmitting on several occasions that the initial figures of the vice-president were not ideal.

The American political historian is nicknamed the “Nostradamus” of the elections because he has successfully predicted the last nine out of 10 presidential elections since 1984. He has consistently stood by his original prediction that Harris would win in 2024.

However, as more results came in, Lichtman admitted the data was “very scary,” later admitting “it doesn’t look good” as they looked at the race for North Carolina.

“I definitely have lost hope that she will win overwhelmingly, but I have not lost hope that she will win,” her son responded.

One of Lichtman’s strongest reactions came around 10:30 p.m. ET, after projections showed Trump on track to win 51% of the Hispanic vote in Pennsylvania.

Historian Allan Lichtman and his son, Sam Lichtman, livestream Election Night 2024 (Allan Lichtman/ YouTube)Historian Allan Lichtman and his son, Sam Lichtman, livestream Election Night 2024 (Allan Lichtman/ YouTube)

Historian Allan Lichtman and his son, Sam Lichtman, livestream Election Night 2024 (Allan Lichtman/ YouTube)

“What? It’s not possible,” he exclaimed. “The world has turned upside down, that’s all I can say.” A few minutes later, after reviewing the state of the U.S. Senate race, Lichtman added that there was “nothing positive for Harris yet” – massaging her temples.

His method for predicting the race so accurately in previous election cycles is known as “The Keys to the White House,” a system he designed with Russian academic Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981.

The academic defended his method, which examines 13 factors from the position of the president’s party in the House of Representatives to the health of the national economy, including any record of scandals, social unrest or policy disasters. foreign during his mandate, and comparative charisma. of the two candidates to decide the winner, by applying the designations “true” or “false” to each category.

Lichtman, who predicted a Harris victory, still stood by his prediction (Allan Lichtman/YouTube)Lichtman, who predicted a Harris victory, still stood by his prediction (Allan Lichtman/YouTube)

Lichtman, who predicted a Harris victory, still stood by his prediction (Allan Lichtman/YouTube)

During Tuesday’s show, the Lichtmans thanked a number of trolls for donating to their livestream while claiming the “keys were fake.”

In a previous show, Lichtman reassured viewers by asking them to “ignore the polls” and remain confident in his method. “The keys to the White House don’t change,” he said.

However, the historian previously revealed that he believed there had been “more election anxiety this year” than ever before and that he had received more “hate” in the 2024 cycle.

“Many people believe that the future of the country is at stake here and that American democracy could be a thing of the past. I don’t think it’s an illegitimate fear,” he said.

“I’m so worried about the future of our elections, you know, I think I’ve said it before: democracy is precious but like all precious things, it can be destroyed.”