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What happens to Donald Trump’s criminal conviction? Here are some ways to do it
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What happens to Donald Trump’s criminal conviction? Here are some ways to do it

NEW YORK — Donald Trump’s election victory has created a profound dilemma for the judge overseeing his criminal case in New York. Can he go ahead and convict the president-elect, or could that undermine Trump’s constitutional responsibility to lead the nation?

Court documents released Tuesday revealed that Judge Juan M. Merchan effectively stayed the case until at least Nov. 19, while he and attorneys for both sides rule on what should happen next. Trump’s sentencing was tentatively scheduled for November 26.

Trump’s lawyers are urging Merchan to act “in the interests of justice” and overturn the verdict, the first criminal conviction of a former and future US president.

Manhattan prosecutors told Merchan they want to find a path forward that balances the “competing interests” of the jury’s verdict and Trump’s responsibilities as president.

Here are some scenarios for what could happen next:

Wait until Trump leaves office

If Merchan wants to preserve the verdict without disrupting Trump’s presidency, he could choose to delay sentencing until the president-elect leaves office in 2029.

Trump would be 82 years old at the end of his second term and would be more than a decade removed from the events at the heart of the case.

Trump’s conviction on 34 counts of falsifying business records involves his efforts to hide a $130,000 payment during his 2016 presidential campaign to cover up porn actor Stormy Daniels’ claims that she had had sex with him years earlier, which he denies.

If he chooses to wait, Merchan may not be on the bench by then. His current term ends before Trump leaves office.

Grant Trump’s request for immunity

Merchan could also rid himself of the case by granting Trump’s previous request to overturn the verdict because of a U.S. Supreme Court ruling in July that granted presidents broad immunity from criminal prosecution.

The judge had said he would issue his ruling on Tuesday, but that was before Trump’s election victory upended the schedule.

The high court’s ruling grants former presidents immunity from prosecution for official acts and bars prosecutors from using evidence of official acts to try to prove their personal conduct violated the law.

Trump’s lawyers say prosecutors “tainted” the case with testimony about his first term and other evidence that should not have been allowed. Prosecutors said the decision provides “no reason to disturb the jury’s verdict.”

The judge could order a new trial — which could take place after Trump leaves office — or dismiss the indictment entirely.

Wait for a federal court to rule

Merchan could choose to delay things until the Second U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals rules on Trump’s earlier attempt to move the case from state court to federal court.

Trump’s lawyers appealed a Manhattan federal judge’s decision to deny the transfer. Their argument: Trump’s case should go to federal court because, as a former president, he has the right to assert immunity and seek impeachment.

However, waiting for the appeals court to rule could lead to further delays in the future. The court gave prosecutors until January 13 to respond to Trump’s appeal. It’s a week before he takes the oath of office. Once Trump is in the White House, his legal team could present new arguments around presidential immunity.

Case dismissed

Merchan could end the case immediately by overturning Trump’s conviction on 34 counts of falsifying business records and dismissing the indictment.

This would mean there will be no convictions or sanctions, sparing the president-elect the possibility of prison time or other sanctions.

Trump’s lawyers insist that dismissing the case is the only way to “avoid unconstitutional obstacles” to his ability to govern.

Prosecutors acknowledged the “unprecedented circumstances” in which Trump’s conviction conflicted with his election, but also said the jury’s verdict should stand.

Proceeding with sentencing

Merchan could also opt for none of the above and move on to sentencing — or at least try, barring an appeal from Trump’s lawyers.

Ilya Somin, a law professor at George Mason University, said the question of whether the case would result in a conviction “could go either way.”

If so, he said, “it probably won’t be a prison sentence.”

Trump’s charges carry a range of penalties ranging from a fine or probation to four years in prison.

“Any prison sentence would probably be blocked or suspended in some way,” but a lesser sentence “would probably not hamper Trump significantly,” Somin said.