Georgians will vote Saturday in parliamentary elections that are expected to determine whether the mountainous country straddling Eastern Europe and Western Asia will turn to Moscow or Brussels.

The country’s geopolitical bifurcation has gradually deepened over the years, but it came to the fore in April, when large-scale protests erupted.

They opposed a controversial “foreign agents” law passed in May. Critics say it resembles Russian legislation, which has been used to suppress dissent.

For many protesters, it also speaks to the pro-Russian bent of the Georgian dream, as the ruling party seeks a fourth term in power.

Pro-Western opposition parties aim to form a coalition to achieve a majority government and put the country back on the path to membership in the European Union.

The opposition can count on broad support from the country’s largely Western-leaning Generation Z, while Georgia Dream enjoys support from the country’s older generation and rural voters.

Polls suggest it will be a closely fought battle. As the war between Russia and Ukraine rages, observers have drawn parallels with recent votes in Moldova, a country evenly divided between pro-Russian and pro-Western factions.

Here’s what you need to know:

What is important in these elections?

It depends who you ask.

“If you listen to the government, it’s a choice between peace and war. (For) the opposition, it is a choice between the EU and Russia, and according to civil society, it is a choice between democracy and authoritarianism,” Kornely Kakachia, professor and director of the Georgian Institute of Politics. .

Experts agree that geopolitics will be a determining factor in these elections.

Voters will decide “what kind of state they want to build,” Kakachia said.

Either they will continue to look west and pursue the country’s ambition to become a full member of the EU, enshrined in its constitution, or they will look to Russia, a country that Georgia, as Post-Soviet state, shares a long and complex history. history with.

Russia and Georgia fought a five-day war in 2008 over the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, during which several hundred people were killed and thousands of ethnic Georgians were displaced.

The conflict ended in a decisive victory for Russia after its troops quickly reached a vital highway and camped near the Georgian capital, Tbilisi.

Thomas de Waal, a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe who specializes in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus region, told Al Jazeera that the vote will determine whether Georgia “is going to survive as a democracy” or, if the dream Georgian wins, if it becomes a democracy. a one-party state, like some other countries in the region, including Azerbaijan.

He cited Georgia’s Dream’s recent promise to ban the largest opposition party, the United National Movement (UNM), if it wins, as a sign that Georgia may be moving more toward a form of “democracy illiberal.

What is Georgia Dream and is it pro-Russian?

Georgian Dream was created by billionaire oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili in 2012 and was initially seen as a pro-European party.

De Waal said that during the ruling party’s first term in office it had maintained strong relations with Brussels, culminating in the 2014 Association Agreement which deepened economic and trade ties.

However, in recent years the party, and notably Ivanishvili, who made his fortune in Russia, has shown signs of rapprochement with Moscow.

After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Georgian government did not support Western sanctions against Moscow, and Ivanishvili failed to publicly condemn them.

However, with around 80 percent of the population supporting EU membership, Kakachia explained that the government cannot openly denounce the EU or any ambition to move away from its influence.

He added that the party had instead focused on criticizing opposition parties and Western influence for threatening to drag Georgia into war with Ukraine.

In return, he favors the deepening of relations with Moscow to avoid antagonizing his neighbor.

At the same time, he said the party was expressing a desire for Georgia to join the EU, but on its “own terms”, which he said would resemble Hungary’s strained relations with the bloc under Viktor Orban.

Does UNM have a chance to topple Georgia Dream?

Not alone.

Polls range from 13 to 20 percent for the party founded by former President Mikheil Saakashvili in 2003, the same year he came to power.

During his third term, he was mired by scandals. After large-scale protests, the party was ousted by a coalition formed by Georgian Dream in 2012.

Saakashvili was arrested in October 2021 after returning to Georgia from Ukraine and is currently serving a six-year prison sentence for “abuse of power.”

That legacy has led to UNM being seen as a “toxic brand” for many voters, De Waal said, with many opposition parties seeking to distance themselves from any association with the former president.

What is the Georgian Charter?

The charter is an agreement between 19 political parties aimed at consolidating pro-European opposition to the Georgian Dream.

It was presented in May by Georgia’s current president, Salome Zurabichvili, and promises that if the opposition gains a majority, it will implement judicial and anti-corruption reforms under a temporary government to put the country back on track. path for EU accession negotiations.

According to the charter, once the reforms are implemented, the provisional government will call early elections.

What are the possible consequences?

It’s difficult to judge.

Polls suggest Georgian Dream will get the highest number of votes, but not the majority – at least 76 votes out of 150 parliamentary seats – needed to form a government.

All opposition parties have ruled out striking a working deal with Georgia Dream, which could allow it to cross the threshold.

De Waal said that while opposition parties have a real chance of securing the 50 percent of votes needed to form a government, they lack “a charismatic leader” who could matter in such a tight race.

Kakachia can’t predict who will win, but he said Election Day would represent the “calm before the storm.”

If Georgia Dream retains power, he hopes the younger generation will protest against the return to Russia’s sphere of influence, 33 years after independence.

If the opposition wins, Kakachia predicts that the United States and other foreign actors will need international mediation and shuttle diplomacy to appease Ivanishvili and provide him with security and financial guarantees.

In early October, the EU adopted a resolution calling on its member states to impose personal sanctions on Ivanishvili.

Kakachia said Georgia’s neighbor Russia would also be upset by an opposition victory, which could lead to geopolitical consequences.

He said Moscow could express its dissatisfaction with a new EU-friendly government by introducing a trade embargo.