A tropical disturbance developing in the Caribbean Sea has been designated Potential Tropical Cyclone 19 by the National Hurricane Center and is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm – known as Tropical Storm Sara – over the next few days.

At 4 p.m., PTC 19, formerly known as Invest 99L, was 460 miles east of Isla Guanaja, Honduras, and 290 miles east-northeast of Cabo Gracias In Dios, near the Honduras-Nicaragua border, the NHC said. Maximum sustained winds are 30 mph, or about 9 mph before becoming a tropical storm.

It is expected to become Tropical Storm Sara as it approaches Central America this week, and be near hurricane strength, the NHC said, and it could maintain that strength as it passes near Mexico early next week.

The PTC designation allows the NHC to run more computer models, including declaring what is called the cone.

Is a tropical storm heading toward Florida?

It is too early to tell how the system will impact the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the Florida Keys and Cuba, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Computer models show a variety of paths, including reaching North Florida, Central Florida and South Florida, although it is too early to know for sure. We should learn more every day.

Two current scenarios regarding the impact on Florida:

Scenario 1: The storm moves between Cancun and Cuba, potentially becoming a major hurricane over open water and impacting Florida early next week as a strong system.

Scenario 2: The storm moves over Nicaragua and Honduras before heading toward Belize, eventually reaching the Gulf and eventually heading toward Florida. This path would likely result in a weaker system.

When will we know?

We will learn more throughout the week as the National Hurricane Center continues to monitor this potential system and provide updates on its development.

When does hurricane season end?

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30, 2024. The hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30 each year. Although rare, it is possible for storms to form outside these windows.

How many tropical storms and hurricanes have we had this year?

If Sara forms, it would mark the 18th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

So far this year, we’ve had 11 hurricanes and six tropical storms, with a total of 17 named storms.

Hurricanes: Beryl, Debby, Ernesto, Francine, Helene, Isaac, Kirk, Leslie, Milton, Oscar, Rafael.

Tropical Storms: Alberto, Chris, Gordon, Joyce, Nadine and Patty.

Three hurricanes made landfall in Florida: Hurricane Debby, Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton.

In November, only three hurricanes made landfall in Florida in the last 173 years of records. These were an unnamed storm in 1935, Hurricane Kate in 1985, and Hurricane Nicole in 2022.

Which names remain on the list?

21 names are given each hurricane season, which repeat every six years. Names may be removed if they were significantly destructive or deadly.

If all 21 names are used during a season, there is an additional list of storm names. The top five on this list are: Adria, Braylen, Caridad, Deshawn and Emery.

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