News emerging from Butaleja district in eastern Uganda indicates that leading opposition figure and FDC member Patrick Wakida has defected to join the NRM. Many people reading this will also not recognize the name or its successful organization Research World International. So, for them, this defection doesn’t really matter. But the picture becomes clearer when you consider that about two years ago he also ventured into the education sector, establishing one of the swankiest primary schools in Kampala. So make no mistake, his defection is a big deal – especially if you want to understand the realities of business in Museveni’s Uganda.

Many businessmen who have tried to flirt with the opposition have discovered that you have to choose between that and keeping your business afloat. There are stories of downtown merchants who had been in business for generations but made the mistake of ending up on the wrong lists and paying a lot for it.

Even with a lifespan of 40 years, it is fascinating that the most important local businessmen are appendages of the inner circle of power. You will find their names on rescue lists, or on accusations of stealing from unmarked pallets aboard chartered planes, or of contributing financially to current presidential campaigns. They probably also make untraceable contributions to the opposition, but they’d take a bullet before admitting it. All the more reason to keep this in mind when complaining about why the investment of choice for many half-educated older Ugandan businessmen is an arcade, not a factory, a tech factory or a retail chain.

The mechanics involved in running and running this type of business require a lot more thought than many of us are capable of. If Uganda is your operational base, you won’t have enough time to figure it out. The environment is volatile and hostile – so you’d rather not play with what little you have. What’s more, our politicians and their lackeys aren’t smart enough to know how good business works. They will sink you without thinking because most of the time, many of them are incapable of doing so. The owner of the arcade does not need to run from one office to another with a stack of papers to prove his innocence.

He doesn’t need to try to lobby a powerful tribesman to get his container of laptops cleared through customs. Damn! He doesn’t even have to worry that if his imports or exports go so well, they might be hijacked and monopolized by the deep state. All he has to do now is think about how much he can increase the monthly rent. This is realpolitik.

Writer Benjamin Rukwengye is the founder of Boundless Minds