Republicans will take control of the Senate over the next two years, NBC News projects, as Democrats have. became nervous about Kamala Harris’ chances of winning the presidency.

Senate Republicans ousted Democrats from red states for the majority, flipping seats in West Virginia and Ohio, two states that have tilted heavily toward the Republican Party. And they held on in friendly states like Texas and Florida, securing them at least 51 seats when the new Congress is sworn in next January.

The GOP’s success in converting a Senate dream card into victories where it mattered most will give the party control of legislation and appointments under the next president. NBC News has not yet predicted a winner in the race for the White House or which party will control the House.

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Democrats hoped their slate of incumbents and heavy outside spending by allied groups would help overcome headwinds in these red states. But ultimately, the force of political gravity won out.

Republican senators are expected to elect a new leader next week as longtime Republican leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., steps down from office after a record 18 years. His current deputy, Sen. John Thune, R-S.D., and his former deputy, Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, are vying to fill the position at the start of the new Congress.

“The Biden-Harris administration has forced the American people to endure four years of high prices, open borders and chaos on the world stage,” Thune, the Republican Party whip, said in a statement. the United States Senate, we can begin to turn the page on this costly and reckless chapter in American history. »

All non-incumbent presidents since 1992 have entered office with their party controlling both houses of Congress. But since the House is still up for grabs, there is no guarantee this will happen this year for Kamala Harris or Donald Trump.

Republicans were favorites to win the Senate

Democrats entered Election Day with a 51-49 lead. As expected, Republicans will pick up an open seat in deep-red West Virginia, with NBC News predicts that Governor Jim Justice won the election to succeed retired Democratic senator-turned-independent Joe Manchin.

And in the red state of Ohio, Republican candidate Bernie Moreno defeated Sen. Sherrod Brown, Democrat of Ohio, according to NBC News.

The party is also seeking to flip a Democratic-held seat in red states Montana, where Democratic Sen. Jon Tester will once again have to defy political gravity against Republican rival Tim Sheehy.

And Democrats are defending five other seats in highly competitive purple states at the presidential level: Sen. Bob Casey in Pennsylvania; an open seat in Michigan, where Sen. Debbie Stabenow is retiring; Sen. Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin; an open seat in Arizona, where Democratic-turned-independent senator Krysten Sinema is retiring; and Senator Jacky Rosen in Nevada.

Meanwhile, Democrats’ best hopes of winning a Republican-held seat faded in Texas, where Sen. Ted Cruz was re-elected to a third term, NBC News projected. In red-leaning Florida, Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., also won re-election, defeating former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, NBC News projected. Some Democrats had held out hope for a miracle in Florida, but outside groups largely wrote off the race.

In deep-red Nebraska, populist independent candidate Dan Osborn was running against low-key Republican Sen. Deb Fischer, but Fischer held his ground.

A close fight for the House

The House race is on a knife-edge, with redistricting leading to some early seat changes but no clear trend in which direction control of the House will take.

Republicans came into Election Day with a 220-212 majority, with three seats vacant — two in safe blue seats, one in a safe red seat. Democrats will need just four seats to take control of the House and, with it, the speaker’s gavel and the chairmanship of all committees.

The battlefield is narrow. According to the Cook Political Report, there are 22 “drawn” seats at the heart of the fight – 10 held by Democrats and 12 by Republicans. A few dozen additional seats are hotly contested, but tilt in favor of a single party.

Notably, the blue states of New York and California are home to 10 ultra-competitive House districts. Both of these states are expected to be comfortably won by Harris at the presidential level, but Republicans are investing heavily to hold and flip seats there.

In New York, Republicans were defending four seats they flipped in 2022, which propelled them to a majority in the House. Democratic challenger John Mannion unseated Republican Rep. Brandon Williams in a Syracuse-based district on Tuesday. Other GOP freshmen fighting for re-election are Reps. Marc Molinaro, Mike Lawler and Anthony D’Esposito. Meanwhile, Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan fended off a challenge from Republican Alison Esposito in New York’s Hudson Valley in a race described as “lean Democratic.”

In Pennsylvania, Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright, a former six-term executive who represents President Joe Biden’s hometown of Scranton, lost to Republican Rob Bresnahan.

And in Central and Southern California, at least five Republican incumbents also face tough re-election bids.

Freshman Rep. John Duarte faces Democrat Adam Gray in the 13th District; Rep. David Valadao has a rematch against Democrat Rudy Salas in the 22nd District; Rep. Mike Garcia fends off a challenge from Democrat George Whitesides in the 27th District; Longtime Rep. Ken Calvert is trying to hold off Democrat Will Rollins in the 41st District; and Rep. Michelle Steel faces Democrat Derek Tran in the 48th District.

Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and the man who wants to replace him, Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., have spent the last few weeks crisscrossing these key House battlegrounds, as well as ‘a multitude of swing districts in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada and the Pacific Northwest.

As polls opened Tuesday morning, the chairman of the Democratic campaign arm of the House of Representatives sounded a note of optimism.

“We’re in a very strong position,” Rep. Suzan DelBene, D-Wash., told NBC News. “We have excellent candidates. We stand with the American people on policy, in our message. We’ve had the resources to get out the vote and communicate with voters across the country, and all of that has put us in a very strong position today to take back the majority, take back the gavels, and make Hakeem Jeffries our next speaker. »

She nevertheless warned that the battle for the majority could be close and take “a few days” to count all the votes.

“We might not find out tonight,” DelBene said.

But in a speech to supporters in his hometown of Shreveport, Louisiana, Johnson said he would fly to Mar-a-Lago on Tuesday night to be with Trump – a sign that the president and Republicans believe They’re having a good election night. Spokespeople for Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., and GOP Conference Chairwoman Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., said those leaders were also on their way to see Trump.

“I think it’s a night, when they compile all of this, I’m hopeful that we’ll not only have a larger majority in the House to make my job easier,” Johnson told the crowd in Shreveport, “but We take back the Senate and the White House as well, I think that’s what’s going to happen.”

A full plate

The new Congress will have to work with the new president from the start.

THE Fiscal Responsibility Lawthe product of a deal between Biden and then-President Kevin McCarthy extended the nation’s debt limit through January 2025. The Treasury Department will be able to avoid an immediate catastrophic default using extraordinary measures to free up cash, but another bipartisan agreement will likely be necessary.

The Senate will spend the first part of the new year confirming the president’s judicial and Cabinet nominees, as well as hundreds of other appointees to other policy roles.

If Republicans manage to take full control of the White House and Congress, they will find themselves in the same situation as in 2016 – with Trump back at the helm.

In this scenario, Republicans will have to figure out how to use budget reconciliation, an arcane process that would allow them to fast-track legislation without Democratic support: Will they first move forward with another round of Trump’s tax cuts? Or are they once again trying to repeal or revise Obamacare, as they failed to do in 2017?

Johnson, whose political fate is linked to the outcome of electionsrecently declared that Republicans would go big and pursue a “massive reform » of the Affordable Care Act if his party wins.

“The ACA is so deeply entrenched that we need massive reform to make it work, and we have a lot of ideas on how to do it,” Johnson said during a campaign stop in Pennsylvania.

If Democrats manage to capture the White House and Congress, it would be a remarkable coup for a party facing one of the most daunting Senate maps of the modern era. That would give Harris’ aggressive economic agenda a fighting chance and put legislation to codify abortion rights at the top of the agenda.