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When Russian tanks entered Ukraine in February 2022, the conventional wisdom was that the capital, kyiv, would soon fall and that the rest of the country would not long resist a much greater enemy.

Instead, it was this narrative that quickly fell apart. The Ukrainian army has proven that it can slow the advance of Russian forces and, if not drive them out completely, at least – with sufficient support from the West – prevent defeat.

But almost three years later, the outlook is bleak again. Russia is spending enormous amounts of weapons and human lives to make modest but steady territorial gains in nearly a fifth of Ukraine that it already controls. Ukraine, meanwhile, is working to minimize losses, maintain morale and convince its allies that with more military aid it can turn the tide.

As this brutal war of attrition approaches its 1,000th day, neither side appears eager to negotiate. President-elect Donald Trump has said he could end the war quickly, although it is unclear how or in whose favor he could tip the scales.

It is this context that appears to guide Russian strategy in eastern Ukraine, according to Phillips O’Brien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews, Scotland. Trump could try to force an end to the war by stopping the supply of weapons to Ukraine, he said.

“If Trump cuts aid to Ukraine and a ceasefire leads to a frozen conflict, Russia wants to secure as much territory as it can now,” O’Brien said.

For Ukraine, the key to any ceasefire would be assurances from the West that it will not allow Russia to invade the country again in the future. Otherwise, O’Brien said, “a ceasefire is a recipe for continued instability in Europe.”

Russia advances slowly but surely in eastern Ukraine

In the first year of the war, Ukraine lost huge territories, but it also won notable victories. It held off a much larger adversary with superior air power to survive as an independent country, and reclaimed some land through courageous counter-offensives, giving the underdog – and its wealthy allies – the confidence to stay in the fight.

In the second year, marked by Ukraine’s devastating loss of Bakhmut and the failure of its counteroffensive, the armies fought to a standstill along a front line of 1,000 kilometers (620 miles). Late that year, the U.S. Congress delayed approval of a $61 billion arms, economic and humanitarian aid package.

With Ukraine’s munitions dwindling, its prospects deteriorated significantly as the third year of the war began. In February 2024, the town of Avdiivka fell after months of Russian airstrikes, which used highly destructive Soviet-era bombs equipped with navigation systems.

The fall of Avdiivka created a major breach in Ukraine’s defenses. When Russia subsequently launched an assault on the northeastern city of Kharkiv, Ukrainian troops were stretched even further.

Ukraine had a positive moment in August, when it launched a surprise incursion into Russia. It occupied – and still occupies – hundreds of square kilometers in the Kursk region. While this could be an important element in any ceasefire negotiation, it has not stopped Russian forces from seizing more land in eastern Ukraine.

“The Russians have paid a very high price to continue to advance, but they are prepared to pay that price in human lives to gain a few more meters of territory every day,” said Justin Crump, director of the British strategic consultancy Sibylline.

Tens of thousands of troops from both countries have been killed since the war began in 2022, according to estimates, and the UN says at least 11,700 Ukrainian civilians have been killed.

Even though the amount of land Russia gains in 2024 – about 2,455 square kilometers (948 square miles) – is equivalent to less than 1% of Ukraine’s pre-war territory, it has a psychological impact.

With Ukraine’s withdrawal, “we have now returned to a period reminiscent of the first months (of the war),” said Mykola Bielieskov, an analyst at the CBA Initiatives Center in kyiv. “This strengthens Russia’s position, not so much militarily but in terms of morale.”

A war of attrition forces both sides to seek outside resources

To keep its war machine running, Russia – like Ukraine – has turned to its allies for help.

Iran supplies Russia with drones and possibly missiles, and North Korea has sent munitions and even troops, which have been deployed in Russia’s Kursk region.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said this year that 700,000 of his troops were fighting in Ukraine. Analysts say Putin would need a much larger force to accelerate Russia’s advance, but is unlikely to mobilize more troops because it could stoke internal discontent.

Ukraine’s presence in Kursk is another complicating factor for Putin, and it could be used as a bargaining chip in future ceasefire negotiations.

Capt. Yevhen Karas, Ukraine’s commander in Kursk, said the fighting in Russia is very dynamic, but he believes it will prove effective in diverting Russia’s attention and resources.

“Even a creeping and retreating front significantly exhausts the enemy,” Karas said.

Ukraine has asked the West for longer-range missiles and its blessing to fire on air bases deep inside Russia. But its allies have so far resisted, fearing an escalation of tensions with a nuclear-armed Russia.

The United States has provided more than $64 billion in military aid to Ukraine since the war began 1,000 days ago. Soldiers worry about what would happen without sustained American support.

“Bravery, heroism and morale are not enough,” said a Ukrainian soldier in the eastern Donetsk region, speaking on condition of anonymity in line with military rules.

The soldier estimates that where he is stationed, Russian infantry outnumbers Ukrainian troops 10 times. As the war drags on and the death toll rises, it becomes increasingly difficult for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to continue replacing his troops.

The United States will play a critical role in determining the next direction of the war

Where the war goes next will depend largely on how the new Trump administration plays its role.

Trump, who has touted his good relationship with President Vladimir Putin and called the Russian leader “pretty smart” for invading Ukraine, has repeatedly criticized U.S. support for Ukraine.

During his only campaign debate with Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump twice refused to directly answer the question about whether he wanted Ukraine to win – raising fears that kyiv could be forced to accept unfavorable conditions in any negotiation.

Without security guarantees from the West, Ukraine could find itself vulnerable to future Russian aggression. Analysts say a ceasefire based on the current state of the battlefield would set a dangerous precedent, implying that Europe’s borders would be conquered through military action – something that has not happened since the Second World War.

“It would also be very successful in countries like China, India and elsewhere,” said Richard Connolly, a Russia expert at the Royal United Services Institute in London. “They could present this as a strategic defeat not only for Ukraine, but also for the West. »

As another winter of war approaches, Ukrainian soldiers say they remain determined.

“We are strong, we give everything and we will not surrender,” said a battalion chief of staff in the southern Zaporizhzhia region. “The most important thing today is not to lose more land. »

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Associated Press journalist Volodymyr Yurchuk contributed to this report.