After record gains for Indian stocks during Samvat 2080, when both major indices hit their new all-time highs, driven by strong domestic flows and a resilient economy despite global challenges, we are all set to inaugurate the new Samvat 2081 at the occasion of the auspicious festival of Diwali. this falls on November 1, 2024.

Sensex and Nifty-50 during this period recorded significant gains, with the Sensex and Nifty gaining around 26 percent and 29 percent respectively.

TRIVESH D, COO, Tradejini noted that Samvat 2080 has been a year of significant ups and downs, with sector performance telling a story of volatility, opportunity and recalibration. Investors have seen both dramatic gains in some sectors and much-needed corrections in others, he added.

The market experienced periods of strong bullish momentum, particularly in the first half, followed by sharp corrections due to macroeconomic headwinds and global uncertainties.

However, more recently, a major shift has come as foreign investors have started a selling spree due to concerns about overvaluation of Indian markets. Another factor was China’s recovery plan, which aimed at economic reforms to deal with the housing crisis, which triggered a wave of optimism and investors around the world bet on China.

Nonetheless, as the euphoria that led the rally has started to subside, here’s how market experts think Samvat 2081 bodes well for Indian stocks.

Indian Stock Market Outlook for Samvat 2081

Rajesh Ranjan Sinha, Senior Research Analyst at Bonanza Portfolio, highlighted some of the notable factors that can influence the trajectory of the stock market in the future during Samvat 2081:

– Geopolitical concerns: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in West Asia, as well as fluctuations in crude oil prices, are critical factors that could impact market stability.

– Profit growth: Corporate profits will remain a focal point as investors assess the health of various sectors.

– US elections and national elections in India: Upcoming events, such as the US presidential elections and national elections in India, will also impact stock market movements.

– Interior entrance: Domestic flows have been a major support for the Indian market, absorbing selling pressure from foreign institutional investors (FIIs).

Separately, Pranav Haridasan, MD and CEO of Axis Securities, noted that Samvat 2081 marks an important year for the global economy, starting in the middle of a global rate reduction cycle. The US Fed cut rates last month by 50 basis points to 5 percent – ​​the first such action since the pandemic low – with the expectation of two more cuts before the end of the year. year. At home, the RBI kept its policy rates unchanged at its last MPC meeting while changing its stance from “withdrawal of accommodative measures” to “neutral”. That said, we subscribe to the view that one or two rate cuts could materialize in Samvat 2081, depending on the trajectory of growth and inflation, Haridasan added.

Although the long-term growth of Indian stocks remains stronger than ever, current valuations leave limited room for expansion. This means that corporate earnings growth will be a key driver of market returns. Stock selection that balances growth – at a reasonable price – and quality will be key to achieving good returns in the year ahead.

TRIVESH D pointed out that, as Moving forward, it is evident that the euphoria that fueled the rally has begun to subside. Comparing data from the last 20 years, Nifty’s annual returns over the last three years have fallen to 13 per cent, compared to the long-term average of 16 per cent. This suggests a narrower trading range and moderate expectations heading into Samvat 2081.