Trump promised, in addition to fighting illegal immigrants, to cut taxes, impose high tariffs on imports, end the war in Ukraine in one day, allow Israel to finish its work in Middle East, to reverse US commitments on climate change and force US allies in Europe and Asia to take greater responsibility for their own defense and security, so as to reduce the US tax burden linked to climate change. “defense of the free world”.

Stock market investors are encouraged by the prospect of lower corporate and income taxes. Expect U.S. stock prices to rise in the near term. The short-term outlook for US growth is positive and that for inflation is moderate. The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its interest rate cuts, boosting stock prices and encouraging more funds to flow into foreign markets, including India.

However, the medium-term outlook is less bright. Trump’s tax cuts and handouts will widen the budget deficit and create excess demand that will drive up inflation. Widespread tariffs on imports will further raise prices and reduce the availability of cheap products, especially if Trump makes good on his threat to impose a 60% import tariff on imports from China.

A reduced supply of legal or illegal immigrants to the United States would put pressure on the labor market and increase wages, adding a new layer of inflationary pressure. Trumpian tariffs would encourage trading partners to take retaliatory measures. A trade war would reduce global growth and each country’s export demand. By the time these impulses manifest themselves in the economy, Trump’s presidential term will be over and it will be up to the next administration to clean up the mess.

India-US relations

India’s relationship with the United States is not based on the personal whims and fancies of any leader, but on a certain strategic convergence between the two nations, thanks to the United States’ identification of the China as its global strategic rival and India’s potential to counter China in India. -Peaceful. This relationship has strengthened since former US President George W. Bush and former Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh signed the Indo-US nuclear treaty in 2008.

India can be expected to step up its purchases of US arms and strive to jointly produce advanced weaponry in India. Trump’s new ally, entrepreneur Elon Musk, can be counted on to recognize the importance of Indian talent to the continued dynamism of American big tech. This means that H-1B visas for Indian professionals not only would not be at risk, but could even be available on more favorable terms than they are currently.

Trump is gaining support, probably because he expresses the view of a large number of Americans, although not a majority, that the United States should disengage somewhat from the rest of the world in order to to focus on domestic tasks that would “make America great again.” . This process gives additional legitimacy to viewing “outsiders” as threats and inferior beings. White supremacists who strongly support Trump can be expected to feel free to exercise their superiority over people of color with increased impunity. Expect random attacks on people of Indian origin in the United States to increase in frequency. But that would obviously pale in comparison to the conflict between racial groups that may arise from the mass expulsions of migrants promised by Trump.

Calling immigrants rapists, criminals, and drug dealers and describing African nations as shitholes will not promote tolerance for racial minorities. Trump’s promise to pardon his own past crimes and those of his supporters, who attacked the Capitol on January 6, 2021, will embolden vigilantism. The potential for urban crime and violence is increasing in the United States.

Women’s right to decide the fate of their own bodies is threatened by Trump’s return to the White House. From a normative perspective, this is a setback for women and gender rights in general, everywhere.

Trump’s isolationist streak in foreign policy would encourage countries like South Korea and Japan to develop the nuclear weapons they are technically capable of producing but have given up in exchange for the promise of America’s nuclear shield.

Expect more and more countries to spend more and more on weapons. Gun makers will become the darlings of the market, alongside Tesla and other tech companies.