Over the past two decades, China has brought India’s neighbors closer to its embrace through a combination of financial incentives, defense deals and large-scale infrastructure projects.

This narrativeoften underlined by the Indian And Western media, suggests that China is using its economic might to lure these nations, giving them substantial loans and building what some see as “white elephant» projects. The claim is that China’s end goal is to lock these countries into a cycle of debt dependence, and that it is using a “pearl necklace» strategy aimed at restricting India’s regional autonomy.

However, an examination of South Asian history since the late 1940s reveals a deeper and more nuanced reason for China’s success in the region.

India’s neighbors have long adopted a policy of seeking external alliances to mitigate India’s domination.

India is the dominant power in South Asia. The most populous nation with the greatest territorial extent. Its army and economy are larger than those of its neighbors. World Bank data shows that of the approximately 4.8 million troops in South Asia, India deploys more than three million. India not only dominates the South Asian economy, but its dominance is growing; India now accounts for approximately 80 percent of the South Asian economy, up from 76 percent in 1980.

This structural imbalance, aggravated by India’s central geographical position and its common borders with almost all South Asian countries, has pushed Indian leaders to to kiss an approach to regional domination in the style of the Monroe Doctrine. India’s first Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, articulated this position in 1961, asserting that India would not tolerate external influences in South Asia, particularly those that threatened Indian interests. Indian policymakers believe that regional cooperation should be with India rather than through external aid. The reason is that India’s recognized military superiority would ensure regional peace and stability.

Yet India’s hierarchical vision for South Asia has faced opposition, notably from Pakistan. From the beginning, Pakistan sought regional parity with India, as well as the membership of Cashmere in Pakistan. To achieve these goals, Pakistan has sought support from external powers such as the United States, China, Gulf countries and Turkey. While India’s intervention in the East Pakistan Liberation War in 1971 led to the division of Pakistan and a shift in regional power dynamics, Pakistan’s dependence on external support demonstrated to other South Asian countries the benefits of leveraging foreign alliances to balance Indian influence.

Sri Lanka has also historically taken measures counter The domination of India. Soon after independence, the United National Party (UNP) relied on the Commonwealth and entered into a defense pact with Britain to guard against Indian intervention. UNP leader Sir John Kotelawala REMARK“The day Ceylon completely got rid of the English, the island would pass under India.” Later Sri Lanka Freedom Party governments cultivated ties with the Non-Aligned Movement and the communist bloc to create distance from India. In the 1980s, UNP President JR Jayewardene sought closer relations with the United States as a counterweight to India. More recently, Sri Lanka has increasingly turned to China to counterbalance India’s influence.

India has always viewed the involvement of external powers in these regions with suspicion. In the case of Sri Lanka, when Jayewardene moved closer to the United States, India responded by funding, training and sheltering the locals. Sri Lankan Tamil militant groupsto finally intervene directly in 1987 with an antenna »food drop» on the Tamil areas and the signing of the India-Lanka peace agreement. Former President Mahinda Rajapaksa also argued that India undermined his administration due to its alignment with China.

Although Sri Lanka has had two pro-India administrations since Mahinda’s departure, Sri Lanka’s political establishment has also maintained close ties with China to ensure that the island nation does not become dependent on the South Asian giant.

India is also concerned about the growing proximity between China and the Maldives. Since joining China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2014, the Maldives has borrowed approximately $1.4 billion Chinese banks, which represent 20 percent of the country’s public debt. Thanks to the BRI, China has succeeded significant investments in infrastructure in the Maldives. Following the departure of India-friendly Ibrahim Mohamed Solih in 2023, Maldives’ bilateral relations with China strengthened under the leadership of President Mohamed Muizzu, who took a “India absent” campaign.

Soon after taking office, Muizzu asked India to replace its military personnel in the Maldives with civilian technicians. Muizzu also visited China, before heading to India. In response, India announced plans for a new naval base on Minicoy Island, in the neighboring Lakshadweep archipelago, and torpedoed Indian tourist arrivals in the Maldives by encourage tourism in Lakshadweep.

However, a close look at Muizzu’s actions shows that his goal is not to sabotage his relations with India but to strategically balance India and China, leveraging their rivalry to obtain advantageous conditions. Maldives remains a party to Modi »The neighborhood first”, which has provided Male with significant financial support for infrastructure, development and cybersecurity projects. In recent months, the Maldives have secure assistance hundreds of millions of dollars from India.

Despite political changes, South Asian countries will likely continue to seek external alliances to counterbalance Indian influence. India’s domination hardly encourages these countries to align with it. Without a common threat to rally South Asian nations around India, and with a perception of India’s importance participation In separatist movements and regional destabilization, many countries view India as the main threat. The transfer of economic power to India as well raised concerns in neighboring countries over the influx of Indian goods and professionals, threatening local economies.

India’s regional ambitions and China’s strategic reach have paved the way for complex power dynamics in South Asia. For the foreseeable future, India’s neighbors will likely continue to balance India’s influence by involving external powers. Until India addresses the economic fears and concerns of its neighbors, regional cohesion around India will remain unlikely. Instead, China’s influence in South Asia is poised to grow, reshaping the balance of power and adding complexity to India’s regional aspirations.