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Why AP called Pennsylvania for Trump
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Why AP called Pennsylvania for Trump

WASHINGTON — If there hadn’t been a red swell on the nation’s most important battlefield, there would have at least been a red swell.

Donald Trump won back Pennsylvania by improving his statewide margins, undercutting Democratic President Joe Biden’s 2020 victory in Philadelphia, expanding his own dominance in rural areas of the state and, at the time, The Associated Press called the race at 2:24 a.m. ET. – flipping key suburban counties in the GOP column.

Trump was leading the state by some 175,000 votes at the time the AP called the race. Even if Vice President Kamala Harris took the remaining votes — including ballots from counties she was losing — by 20 points over Trump, she still wouldn’t be able to close the gap.

Trump’s victory was evident across the state. In Bucks County, a populous Philadelphia suburb, and neighboring Northampton County, Trump was leading — two places seen as bellwethers that Biden won four years ago. Trump did several points better in Philadelphia’s populous Chester and Delaware suburbs. He was winning in Erie, in the northwest part of the state, which Biden narrowly won four years ago.

Even in the Democratic stronghold of Philadelphia, Trump is 3 percentage points better than four years ago.

CANDIDATES: President: Harris (D) vs. Trump (R) vs. Chase Oliver (Libertarian) vs. Jill Stein (Green).

WINNER: Trump

Election workers process mail-in ballots for the 2024 general election...

Election workers process mail-in ballots for the 2024 United States general election at the Philadelphia Election Warehouse early Monday, Nov. 6, 2024, in Philadelphia. Credit: AP/Matt Slocum

SURVEY CLOSING TIME: 8 p.m. ET

ABOUT THE RACE: The most hotly contested race this year, Pennsylvania has seen dozens of visits from Harris and Trump — more than any state.

It was in this state that Trump survived an assassination attempt in Butler over the summer. He appeared at rallies and events across the state and donned an apron at a McDonald’s in suburban Philadelphia in an effort to connect with voters.

Harris appeared at the site where George Washington crossed the Delaware River during the Revolutionary War to highlight support from some Republicans disillusioned with Trump. She organized a get-out-the-vote rally in Philadelphia — a major source of Democratic support — in the final days of the race.

Election workers process absentee ballots for the general election in...

Election workers process mail-in ballots for the general election at the Philadelphia Election Warehouse, Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024, in Philadelphia. Credit: AP/Matt Rourke

Trump carried the state by a single point in 2016, while Biden beat him by a point in 2020.

Pennsylvania struggled with a relatively new early voting option, which allowed voters to request absentee ballots that could be cast before Election Day.

Unlike early voting in other states with polling places, Pennsylvania counties saw lines of people seeking early ballots, in part after Trump and billionaire Elon Musk encouraged Republicans to adopt postal voting. In 2020, Trump made baseless claims that mail-in ballots were riddled with fraud.

WHY AP CALLED THE RACE: Trump performed better in traditionally Democratic Philadelphia than Biden did four years ago and improved his margins in the most populous suburban counties. The race was called when it became clear that even if Harris won the outstanding votes by a wider margin than she had been awarded, she could not close the gap.