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Western U.S. leads mass occupations as industrial demand stabilizes nationwide
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Western U.S. leads mass occupations as industrial demand stabilizes nationwide

Demand for large industrial spaces is growing steadily amid a decline in new construction, offering a positive side to a sector struggling with high vacancy rates and slowing development.

Industrial occupancies for spaces larger than 100,000 square feet, or “bulk occupancies,” are declining in terms of average transaction size, but continue to gain traction. In the first half of 2024, new bulk occupancies increased 7.4% year-over-year to 151 million square feet, despite a broader slowdown in industrial construction, according to Colliers.

The average bulk occupancy size in the first half of 2024 stood at 257,804 square feet, down from 289,840 square feet in the same period last year, Colliers reported. Third-party logistics companies, manufacturers and retailers are leading the pack, driving demand in a challenging market for industrial owners. Leasing activity is on the rise, and recent massive occupancy gains are expected to continue throughout the year.

“An increase in leasing activity in the first half of 2024 will lead to a further increase in mass occupancies in the second half,” said Craig Hurvitz, director of national industrial research at Colliers. “As supply continues to decline and demand recovers, these indicators move closer to balance. Vacancy rates in most markets are expected to peak and begin to decline early next year.”

Demand for industrial space appears to have bottomed out after two straight years of declining mass occupancies in the first half of 2022 and 2023. But even as mass occupancies are on the rise, some markets continue to struggle. Double-digit vacancy rates have emerged in areas of oversupply, where market normalization may take longer than in areas where there is less new construction.

Block occupancies increased in all regions, but were particularly strong in the Western United States, where activity totaled 55 million square feet across 213 transactions, reflecting a 47% increase per year. compared to the first half of 2023. The largest percentage increase was in the Northeast, where block occupancies increased in all regions. occupancies reached 14.4 million square feet, reflecting a 74% increase from last year. In contrast, the South Central and Midwest regions saw declines, with bulk occupancy rates down 36% and 23%, respectively. However, total square footage still stood at 16 million square feet in the South Central region and 35 million square feet in the Midwest.

Despite these fluctuations, demand for large industrial spaces over 100,000 square feet is expected to trend toward pre-pandemic levels. Hurvitz noted that while demand may not reach the record levels of 2021 and 2022, the slowdown in new construction and a gradual rebound in demand could provide relief to landlords facing oversupply and falling rents. .