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Third-party candidates could disrupt swing state, even after intense Democratic efforts
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Third-party candidates could disrupt swing state, even after intense Democratic efforts

Less than a week before Election Today, third-party presidential candidates still present an unknown in key states where dozens of Electoral College votes are on the knife’s edge and getting even 1 percent could make all the difference. difference.

Democrats, traumatized after third-party candidates ate up Hillary Clinton’s vote share in 2016, launched a press campaign early in the election cycle to bring groups like No Labels and candidates like the Party’s Jill Stein to their knees. green, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., who ran as a Democrat before becoming an independent and then supporting former President Donald Trump and Cornel West.

The Democratic National Committee has invested millions of dollars in portraying them as, at best, disruptors and, at worst, deceptive instruments of Republican subterfuge efforts. Outside groups, including centrists and progressives, formed unconventional alliances to pave the way for a face-off between Trump and President Joe Biden and then Vice President Kamala Harris.

Officers involved in the effort expressed satisfaction with the effort. No Labels, which once launched a centrist “unity ticket,” ultimately folded. Kennedy dropped out and aligned himself more with Trump, which could hurt the former president in states where he remains on the ballot. And Stein and West are stuck at the bottom of the polls.

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But no one rests on their laurels.

“Democrats take nothing for granted. We learned the lessons of 2000 and 2016, when third-party candidates helped throw the White House into Republican hands, and we are not going to allow that to happen again in 2024,” Lily said. Smith, DNC communications advisor on third parties.

Nevertheless, “we are not going to congratulate ourselves, but we are satisfied that we have taken the threats from third parties seriously,” she said. “At the beginning of this cycle, people were constantly talking about No Labels and RFK, Jr. But both of them, because of what the Democrats did, ended up not showing up or not participating at all. this race.”

Democrats have been haunted by the election results of 2000 and 2016, when they claimed that third-party candidates received enough votes to deprive their candidates of victory. This danger would not go unaddressed this year, they determined.

The DNC has set up an internal group specifically designed to send messages against third-party candidates. Progressive groups like MoveOn and center-left organizations like Third Way banded together to help pave the way for Biden, and then Harris, to take on Trump one-on-one.

A third-party “unity ticket” from No Labels was rejected after Democrats called the effort a spoiler and put heavy pressure on potential candidates not to join the crusade. Digital operations were set up to quickly highlight controversial comments from candidates like Kennedy, Stein and West. Millions of dollars have been pumped into ads highlighting Republican operatives’ support for solidarity super PACs. And Democrats have filed lawsuits to try to prevent other candidates from securing a spot on swing state ballots.

PHOTO: Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein speaks at a rally in Dearborn, Michigan, October 6, 2024. (Rebecca Cook/Reuters)PHOTO: Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein speaks at a rally in Dearborn, Michigan, October 6, 2024. (Rebecca Cook/Reuters)

PHOTO: Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein speaks at a rally in Dearborn, Michigan, October 6, 2024. (Rebecca Cook/Reuters)

Democrats have now told ABC News they are glad their work made a difference.

Kennedy, in part due to Democratic efforts and in part because of his own views on topics like vaccines and COVID-19, was effectively seen as more aligned with Trump than with his family’s political legacy. Stein, while still running in six of seven swing states, saw her support drop to normal levels after concerns that frustrations with Biden would help her surge. And Democrats no longer view the West as a serious threat.

“There was another point in the race, where No Labels, where RFK was stronger, where I think the threat was a little more existential. I think the threat is still worrisome, but I think the Democrats have worked hard to offer voters that third-party candidates can convince candidates of a different point of view on what these candidates are proposing and also the risk associated with parking a protest vote with these candidates,” said Joel Payne , communications director of MoveOn.

“Third parties are certainly a factor, but I don’t know if they’re the same factor at this point in the race as they were, say, six, nine, 12 months ago.”

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Still, their presence on the ballot poses a risk to both parties, and there’s little neither can do about it.

Stein is listed on the ballot in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The Supreme Court rejected Kennedy’s efforts to get off the ballot in Michigan and Wisconsin. Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver is also on most ballots.

PHOTO: Robert F. Kennedy Jr., speaks to former President Donald Trump, Republican presidential candidate, during a campaign rally at Madison Square Garden, October 27, 2024, in New York. (Evan Vucci/AP)PHOTO: Robert F. Kennedy Jr., speaks to former President Donald Trump, Republican presidential candidate, during a campaign rally at Madison Square Garden, October 27, 2024, in New York. (Evan Vucci/AP)

PHOTO: Robert F. Kennedy Jr., speaks to former President Donald Trump, Republican presidential candidate, during a campaign rally at Madison Square Garden, October 27, 2024, in New York. (Evan Vucci/AP)

Democrats can bash Stein all they want, and Kennedy can shout his support for Trump from the rooftops, but operatives said they are all but guaranteed to win marginal support. Ultimately, operatives say, some voters are unwavering — and in races won or lost on the margins, getting even 1 percent of the vote can make the difference.

“If you’re still a Jill Stein voter and you think this will have an impact on the outcome that could help Trump, then at the end of the day, we’re probably not going to have you anyway. So, I think that 1% is probably realistic, but if Chase Oliver gets 1%, that’s a problem with Trump too,” said Jim Kessler, co-founder of Third Way.

Both parties may have particular concerns in Michigan: Anger over Biden’s handling of the Gaza war could drive some members of the state’s large Arab population away from Harris and closer to Stein, and with Kennedy still on the ballot, it risks jeopardizing Trump’s ability to take power. take advantage of this dynamic.

A CNN/SSRS poll released Wednesday showed Kennedy with 3 percent of the vote in Michigan and Stein with 2 percent. West also received 1% in the poll, although Oliver did not gain enough support to register. In Wisconsin, Kennedy and Stein each received 1 percent, while Oliver and West did not register. In Pennsylvania, Stein and Oliver each received 1 percent.

PHOTO: Presidential candidate Dr. Cornel West speaks to the community and congregation at Second Baptist Church in Santa Ana, March 29, 2024. (Leonard Ortiz/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via Getty Images )PHOTO: Presidential candidate Dr. Cornel West speaks to the community and congregation at Second Baptist Church in Santa Ana, March 29, 2024. (Leonard Ortiz/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via Getty Images )

PHOTO: Presidential candidate Dr. Cornel West speaks to the community and congregation at Second Baptist Church in Santa Ana, March 29, 2024. (Leonard Ortiz/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via Getty Images )

“They’re going to get a few percentage points, and that could affect the outcome of a close election, which all the polls say looks very, very likely, it’s going to be very close,” said nonpartisan Michigan pollster Bernie Porn. .

And in an election cycle that has already seen one president drop out, two assassination attempts, 34 felony convictions and more, any question mark presents a new opportunity for uncertainty.

“You might see someone playing a spoiler role if the race is that close in a lot of these states,” said Republican pollster Robert Blizzard. “I don’t believe Trump has ever been over 50 in Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin before, and yet he’s won those states at least once before. And so, third parties, give a seat to voters who s ‘worried about Harris and tired of Trump but I just don’t know what role they’re going to play.

Yet Democrats are the party most publicly wringing their hands over the threat posed by Stein and others, loath to relive their past traumas. And down the stretch, operatives who spoke to ABC News seemed satisfied that the party had done all it could.

“What we can do at this point is make sure that the voters are doing this out of laziness, that they know the repercussions of that choice. And then, ultimately, it’s up to the voters to decide,” Kessler said. “I’m confident the effort is robust.”

Third-party candidates could disrupt swing state, even after intense Democratic efforts originally appeared on abcnews.go.com