Donald Trump has threatened to use the military to carry out mass deportations after making illegal immigration one of his signature policies in the 2024 election – with the president-elect saying he would deport millions of people from country.

Trump bragged about planning “the largest deportation operation in American history,” saying the plan would be priceless. His chosen border czar, Tom Homan, is a hardliner, having promised “shock and awe” when he takes office and calling the government’s current immigration policy ” national suicide.

But beyond the hyperbole, how many migrants would Trump have to deport for it to be the largest deportation the United States has ever seen?

Here’s a look at the record of the last three presidents – including Trump – on the number of people actually deported:

How many people are living in the United States illegally and how is deportation handled?

There are approximately 11 million undocumented immigrants in the United States, according to Pew Research.

Of these, 8.3 million are employed, representing about 4.8 percent of the entire U.S. workforce.

The backlog of immigration cases stands at 4.3 million, according to the latest Citizenship and Immigration Services figures from September. Federal courts hear immigration cases in which a judge can order a person’s deportation.

Of those, the backlog of asylum applications reached 1.1 million in 2024, according to the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse in Syracuse. For asylum seekers, the processing time is generally around six months; even if some wait much longer for a decision, even 10 years.

Unauthorized immigrants can be “repatriated” from the United States through two main routes: removals or returns.

“Removal” is what may come to mind first when thinking about eviction. It requires a removal order executed by Immigration and Customs Enforcement or Customs and Border Patrol, is not voluntary, and carries criminal consequences upon re-entry into the United States. Expulsion measures constitute the most severe forms of repatriation.

A large proportion of immigrants are also repatriated through “returns,” which take several forms but impose no restrictions on re-entry. Forced returns refer to migrants who cross the border illegally, but leave voluntarily without a formal removal order.

Administrative returns may include cases such as citizens arriving at airports or ports without a visa, or where applications are withdrawn.

How many people were deported under Trump and Obama?

During Trump’s term, approximately 1.2 million people were deported through deportation orders. Another 805,770 people were self-expelled or turned away at the border between fiscal years 2017 and 2020.

Immigration orders under the Trump era were lower than Obama’s. About 1.57 million and 1.49 million immigrants were deported during the fiscal years of Obama’s first and second presidency, respectively.

In fact, Obama has overseen more deportations than any other U.S. president in history.

Between 2009 and 2016, this represents more than 3 million immigration orders; not including “self-expulsions” and other border returns.

Including all repatriations, 5.24 million immigrants were deported or returned during those years.

The Obama administration placed particular emphasis on “threats to national security, border security, and public safety” by targeting convicted criminals. In 2015, for example, 91% of people expelled by expulsion orders were subject to a criminal conviction.

Trump explicitly reversed this criminal prioritization measure upon taking office, for the following reason: “We cannot faithfully enforce the immigration laws of the United States if we exempt classes or categories of deportable aliens from a possible application. »

For comparison, only 41% of deportation orders in 2019 involved convicted felons.

Has Biden been tough on immigration?

Trump criticized the Biden administration for being lax on the border and slow on expulsions.

But the reality is much less clear-cut.

The total number of repatriations under the Biden administration so far stands at around 4.7 million, far more than during the presidencies of Trump and Barack Obama, but it comes with a major caveat .

The Department of Homeland Security releases figures for each fiscal year, which includes the preceding October-December period, so these figures do not correspond exactly to presidential cycles of +/- 3 months.

The majority of this increase is attributed to Title 42 during the Covid-19 pandemic, which was enacted from March 2020 (under President Trump) until 2023.

Title 42 authorized expulsions for public health reasons and was particularly enforced to prevent entry at the U.S.-Mexico border, thereby removing the ability to seek asylum. Biden tried to end Title 42 in 2022, but Republicans sued his administration citing border security concerns.

In May 2023, when the COVID-19 national emergency status was lifted, Title 42 restrictions were also lifted and a flood of migrants crossed the southern border as the policy neared its end.

Since stopping this policy, Biden has used the standard Title 8 framework to deport or return nearly one million (969,000) illegal immigrants.

Yet if we look only at immigration orders, which constitute involuntary expulsions and prevent re-entry into the country, the numbers from the Biden years are down significantly.

There have been approximately 649,000 expulsions of people living in the United States illegally through deportation orders since fiscal year 2021.

That’s just over half the number of about 1.2 million referrals between 2017 and 2020, when Trump led the country.

More aggressive enforcement of expulsions, which carries the risk of criminal consequences upon re-entry, has diminished under Biden; although the use of Title 42 simultaneously allowed large numbers of people to be turned back across the border.

Meanwhile, Biden efforts to introduce a bipartisan security agreement were blocked by Republicans in Congress.

Priority to criminals

Mexico regularly tops the list of deportation orders, followed by other Central American countries like Honduras and Guatemala.

Over the past five years, the proportion of criminals subject to deportation orders appears to have declined.

In fiscal year 2023, only 32% of deportations involved illegal immigrants with criminal records; By 2024, only 1 in 5 deportations were for convicted felons.

Both Republicans and Democrats have focused on crime when it comes to fighting immigration.

Some Republicans used crime among migrants to support their anti-immigration policy. On the other hand, Democrats have advocated prioritizing targeting criminals over blanket deportation policies.

Regardless, the latest numbers under Biden show that deportations of illegal immigrants have not been reserved for those with criminal convictions.

How much would Trump’s plans cost?

Although the exact number of people who will be deported is not yet clear, there is no doubt that Trump’s plans would cost the American taxpayer dearly.

To return illegal migrants to their countries of origin, a single full flight of migrants can costs $250,000according to ICE. At the very least, ICE deportations cost taxpayers $10,854 each, according to 2016 figures from CNN.

A American Immigration Council report estimated the one-time cost of deporting all immigrants without legal status to be at least $315 billion.

A longer-term plan involving evicting a million people a year would cost an average of $88 billion a year, the report found, for a total of $968 billion overall.