In the home stretch of 2024’s most important election, the race could come down to who Americans trust to improve their lives and livelihoods.

The economy has consistently ranked as the top issue for registered U.S. voters in recent years, particularly after President Joe Biden signed border restrictions to combat migrant crossings in June, easing concerns concerns about illegal immigration.

A Gallup poll released October 9 shows that 52 percent of voters say the economy is an “extremely important” issue influencing their vote – the highest level since the global financial crisis. This figure fluctuated between 38 and 44 percent during the last presidential elections. 38 percent say the economy is “very important.”

The economic mood, however, is mixed and uneven, meaning votes will go to the side making the most compelling argument. While economic data released last week showed solid quarterly growth and falling inflation, new jobs created in October fell to their lowest level since 2020, after two devastating hurricanes and strikes.

So far, the economy has not featured prominently in messages from Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump. Both exploited primarily emotional issues to rally their base.

For Trump, that means stoking grievances against the establishment and scapegoating, as evidenced by the incendiary rhetoric at his rally at Madison Square Garden.

Ms. Harris’s playbook, meanwhile, focused on abortion rights and safeguarding democracy. Delivering her final major speech from the Ellipse near the White House, where Trump virtually incited an angry mob on Jan. 6, 2021, to sack Congress, she wanted to remind voters of her attempt to subvert democracy.

A strategy of appealing to their established partisan base, however, might have reached its natural limits in this incredibly close election. Both campaigns have hit a brick wall, with both essentially tied in the seven swing states that could tilt the race: North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada. Although Trump has the advantage in more states, none has an edge greater than 2.2 percentage points, according to FiveThirtyEight polls as of Nov. 2.

Is Trump better for the US economy?

With just two days to go, the window to convince voters in person is closing. To finish strong, it will be necessary to convince the remaining undecided people, most of whom share a concern linked to the economy. The two parties have very divergent messages on this point.

Declaring that her first goal as president would be to lower the cost of living for Americans through tax cuts and expanding Medicare to cover home care during her November 2 rally in Atlanta, in Georgia, Ms. Harris repeated the same message the same day later in Charlotte. , North Carolina.

During this past week, her campaign has aired ads showing she understands the challenges facing steelworkers and small operators, and emphasizing her support for the American working class.

Meanwhile, Trump seized on the poor jobs data, calling it “depression numbers” in his pioneering newspaper in Gastonia and Greensboro, North Carolina on November 2. Economists doubt his election promise to cut spending. petrol at $2 per gallon (S$0.70 per litre), repeated more than 20 times during the campaign, is realistic.