There will be prices. Very large on imports from China and average for the rest of the world. At least that’s it Donald Trump promised during the election campaign. But if there’s anything we’ve learned during his first presidency, it’s that he’s a man who loves chaos, pitting his cabinet members against each other or making sudden policy reversals that take even his closest advisors by surprise. And that’s one reason to be less pessimistic about the new wave of protectionism he has promised to unleash on the world.

To Trump, who nicknamed himself “Fare man“, import duties are magic: an instrument for achieving grand strategic goals and also for achieving tactical victories against adversaries and even partners. If he got his way, the United States would recall a model of small government from the 19th century Gilded Age, financed largely by tariffs rather than income taxes, in which American industrial barons – the Elon Musks of their era – built vast wealth through protectionism and politics. the privilege of limited competition.