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CRE Mortgage Defaults Rise as Office Fights Persist
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CRE Mortgage Defaults Rise as Office Fights Persist

Delinquencies on commercial real estate mortgages increased in the third quarter of 2024, but not all sectors felt the same pain. Loans secured by office buildings and multifamily properties have seen an increase in late payments, while delinquency rates for commercial, industrial and hotel properties have decreased, according to Mortgage’s latest Loan Performance Survey Bankers Association.

Overall, 96.8% of outstanding loan balances were current or less than 30 days past due at the end of the third quarter, down slightly from 97% the previous quarter. The percentage of commercial mortgages classified as more than 90 days delinquent or in real estate ownership (REO) status increased 20 basis points to 2.7%.

“Some homeowners are facing increasing difficulties with their mortgage payments,” said Jamie Woodwell, head of commercial real estate research at the MBA. “Loan performance is influenced by a variety of factors, some positive and some negative, depending on the property type and market.”

Office buildings continue to suffer, with delinquencies on loans linked to these assets increasing by 70 basis points to 7.8% at the end of September. The office sector’s woes have been exacerbated by remote work trends and a post-pandemic glut of unused space, forcing many landlords to renegotiate their leases or face increasing financial pressures.

Multifamily loans also saw a slight increase in delinquencies, from 1.1% in the second quarter to 1.2% in the third quarter, reflecting continued difficulties in the rental market despite strong demand in some regions.

On the other hand, lodging, retail and industrial properties appear to be doing better. Personal loan delinquency rates fell 70 basis points to 3.8%, and industrial properties had just 0.6% of delinquent loan balances at the end of the quarter. The hospitality sector also saw improvement as travel demand continued to recover, with hotel loan delinquencies falling 30 basis points to 5.7%.

The growing gap between office and other sectors highlights the uneven recovery in commercial real estate. While office owners face falling demand, commercial and industrial spaces are performing better, driven by changing consumer habits and the growth of e-commerce.

Although rising delinquencies could be an early sign of economic strain, particularly in the office sector, the overall market remains relatively stable for now. Still, lenders could adopt more cautious strategies, tightening underwriting standards and potentially increasing interest rates on new loans as the landscape evolves.

For investors, the contrasting performance across property types highlights the need for prudent risk management, particularly when it comes to office space.